Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 3 - Round 15

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday


	Gimnástica de Torrelavega		Castro

	1	X	2
	1.24	4.95	9.8
	1.36	4.62	7.79	Watch
	1.25	4.6	12
	1.23	4.85	12.1
	1.25	5	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.32)	4.8 ↑ (4.4)	10.34 ↑ (8.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimnástica de Torrelavega
72.2%

Draw
19%

Castro
8.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.8%

20.6%

10.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.2%

19.4%

10%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimnástica de Torrelavega has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Castro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnástica de Torrelavega than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castro than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Gimnástica de Torrelavega - Castro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45', 1 - 0, Ademan B. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
51', 2 - 0, ⚽,
74', 3 - 0, ⚽,
90+1', 4 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 11).

Torrelavega is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Castro's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Torrelavega may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Torrelavega is the undeniable favorite.

We predict that Torrelavega will win today's game, with odds of 1.38.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Torrelavega won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:2. (average 3.5:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Torrelavega won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimnástica de Torrelavega
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
14.12.25	Cayón - Gimnástica de Torrelavega	0:2 ✺
07.12.25	Gimnástica de Torrelavega - Montañas del Pas	5:0 ✺
23.11.25	Escobedo - Gimnástica de Torrelavega	1:4 ✺
16.11.25	Gimnástica de Torrelavega - Vimenor	4:0 ✺
09.11.25	Tropezón - Gimnástica de Torrelavega	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WWWWW
- Castro FC
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
14.12.25	Castro - Revilla	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Guarnizo - Castro	2:0 ✺
23.11.25	Castro - Colindres	2:1 ✺
09.11.25	Castro - Laredo	0:0 ✺
01.11.25	Bezana - Castro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 3
23.04.22	Castro - Gimnástica de Torrelavega	0:8
19.12.21	Gimnástica de Torrelavega - Castro	3:2
14.11.20	Castro - Gimnástica de Torrelavega	0:0
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
05.11.17	Gimnástica de Torrelavega - Castro	3:0

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