Match Info

Torneo Betano - Apertura - Round 16

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo (La Plata)

Referee: Mastrangelo H. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN Premium
China	K-Ball
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Gimnasia La Plata		Platense

	1	X	2
	2.1	3	4.2	Watch
	2.15	2.8	3.9
	2.58	2.78	3.15
	2.67	2.74	3.4
	2.6	2.71	3.37
	2.61	2.73	3.31	Watch
	2.58	2.78	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.43)	2.79 ↓ (2.95)	3.5 ↑ (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimnasia La Plata
38.6%

Draw
34.1%

Platense
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

32.1%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

33.7%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimnasia La Plata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Platense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gimnasia La Plata than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Platense than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	12.5%	75%

Gimnasia La Plata - Platense Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Gimnasia La Plata will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Platense will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Platense: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Platense (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Platense will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Platense (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Insfran N. (G) 15. Pintado J. 4. Morales L. 6. Suso G. 14. Silva Torrejon P. 7. Piedrahita A. 39. Di Biasi F. 10. De Blasis P. 8. Merlini B. 30. Castillo R. 9. Jan Hurtado	31. Cozzani J. (G) 24. Barros Schelotto B. 13. Vazquez I. 2. Pignani J. 3. Silva T. 7. Mainero G. 32. Baldassarra F. 8. Juarez F. 11. Zapiola F. 36. Orsini N. 21. Lotti A.
Substitutes
28. Corbalan F. 5. Fernandez M. 36. Garayalde N. 20. Giampaoli R. 1. Ingolotti L. (G) 29. Mammini I. 34. Mamut L. 16. Max A. 22. Melluso M. 38. Panaro M. 25. Sosa A. 42. Villarreal S.	1. Desabato A. (G) 4. Elizalde E. 97. Goicochea Del Carpio J. P. 5. Herrera R. 77. Martinez R. 29. Minerva F. 19. Postel S. 23. Roldan E. 25. Saborido J. 26. Schor I. . Toloza S. 35. Troya D.
Coaches
Flores D.	Gomez S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Jan Hurtado 🟨,
37', Juarez F. 🟨,
39', Silva Torrejon P. ↓, Melluso M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Juarez F. ↓, Roldan E. ↑,
60', Orsini N. 🟨,
63', Orsini N. ↓, Martinez R. ↑,
63', Mainero G. ↓, Schor I. ↑,
63', Zapiola F. ↓, Minerva F. ↑,
73', Merlini B. 🟨,
73', Lotti A. ↓, Toloza S. ↑,
77', Suso G. ↓, Garayalde N. ↑,
77', De Blasis P. ↓, Villarreal S. ↑,
78', Jan Hurtado ↓, Mammini I. ↑,
83', Merlini B. ↓, Mamut L. ↑,
85', Barros Schelotto B. 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 0, Garayalde N. ⚽, Pintado J. (A),
90+5', Schor I. 🟨,

Preview

Platense is Qualified for Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Gimnasia La Plata has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Platense is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Platense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Gimnasia La Plata: Castro L. (Yellow Cards) Jan Hurtado (Muscle Injury) Martinez E. (Knee Injury) Piedrahita A. (Muscle Injury) Torres F. (Knee Injury) Villarreal S. (Inactive)

There will not play in Platense: Bay J. (Knee Injury) Cervera T. (Muscle Injury) Goni G. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Rodriguez M. (Groin Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gimnasia La Plata won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Gimnasia La Plata won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimnasia La Plata
Argentinian Liga Profesional
28.04.25	Vélez Sársfield - Gimnasia La Plata	1:0 ✺
18.04.25	Gimnasia La Plata - River Plate	0:3 ✺
13.04.25	Gimnasia La Plata - Estudiantes La Plata	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	Talleres de Córdoba - Gimnasia La Plata	2:0 ✺
30.03.25	Gimnasia La Plata - Sarmiento de Junín	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTLT
- CA Platense
Argentinian Liga Profesional
29.04.25	Platense - Talleres de Córdoba	2:1 ✺
20.04.25	Sarmiento de Junín - Platense	0:1 ✺
15.04.25	Platense - Rosario Central	0:0 ✺
07.04.25	Deportivo Riestra - Platense	1:0 ✺
28.03.25	Platense - Atlético Tucumán	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
15.12.24	Platense - Gimnasia La Plata	1:0
30.07.23	Gimnasia La Plata - Platense	1:1
16.06.22	Platense - Gimnasia La Plata	1:1
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
19.04.22	Platense - Gimnasia La Plata	0:3
Argentinian Liga Profesional
17.07.21	Gimnasia La Plata - Platense	2:2

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