Match Info

Torneo Federal - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Jose Maria Paz (Chivilcoy)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy		Olimpo Bahia Blanca

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.60	3.00
	2.55	2.42	3.15	Watch
	2.69	2.57	3.34
	2.56	2.44	3.49	Watch
	2.65	2.2	3.3
	2.36	2.68	3.67
	2.5	2.6	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↓ (2.63)	2.5 ↓ (2.75)	3.28 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy
35.9%

Draw
36.4%

Olimpo Bahia Blanca
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

32%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8%

32.7%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Olimpo Bahia Blanca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Olimpo Bahia Blanca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olimpo Bahia Blanca than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Olimpo Bahia Blanca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy - Olimpo Bahia Blanca Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Gimnasia Chivilcoy (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gimnasia Chivilcoy (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dormisch N. (G) 3. D'Amelio X. 4. Dauria M. 10. Ferreira P. 2. Fiol F. 8. Gutierrez M. 7. Medina R. 9. Morales E. 11. Salvaggio M. 6. Samaniego L. 5. Zarate A.	1. Lungarzo J. (G) 8. Amarilla C. 4. Bellone A. O. 6. Ferreyra M. 10. Guille B. 3. Lapetina L. 2. Moiraghi N. 7. Olivera M. 11. Ramirez D. 5. Stancato A. 9. Susvielles J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Ramirez D. ⚽,
18', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', D'Amelio X. ↓, Almada L. ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Fiol F. ⚽,
56', 1 - 2, Guille B. ⚽,
81', 🟨,
83', 🟨,
88', 🟨,
90+3', 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-2.

A high-stakes showdown between two teams from the upper tier of the standings (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - Torneo Federal Playoffs and 3rd in the Promotion - Torneo Federal Playoffs).

Gimnasia Chivilcoy is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Olimpo has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Gimnasia Chivilcoy holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Gimnasia Chivilcoy has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy
Argentinian Torneo Federal
27.09.26	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy	2:1 ✺
20.09.26	Douglas Haig - Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy	0:0 ✺
11.09.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy - Sol de América de Formosa	2:0 ✺
06.09.26	Bartolomé Mitre - Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy	0:1 ✺
30.08.26	Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy - Sarmiento de La Banda	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LTWWW
- Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Argentinian Torneo Federal
27.09.26	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy	2:1 ✺
20.09.26	Alvarado - Olimpo Bahia Blanca	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Cipolletti	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	Atenas Río Cuarto - Olimpo Bahia Blanca	1:0 ✺
23.08.26	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Kimberley de Mar del Plata	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Torneo Federal
27.09.26	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy	2:1

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