Match Info

Torneo Federal - Winners stage - Round 9

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio José María Minella (Mar del Plata)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Alvarado		Olimpo Bahia Blanca

	1	X	2
	2.30	2.55	3.30
	2.12	2.62	3.65	Watch
	1.93	2.98	4.36
	2.29	2.72	3.53	Watch
	1.9	2.7	4.3
	2.18	2.86	3.84
	1.9	2.75	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (1.94)	2.74 ↓ (2.85)	3.88 ↓ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alvarado
43.5%

Draw
33.1%

Olimpo Bahia Blanca
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

31.4%

22.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

30.7%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alvarado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Olimpo Bahia Blanca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olimpo Bahia Blanca than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Alvarado - Olimpo Bahia Blanca Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bilbao E. (G) 2. Centurion F. 9. Cervera G. 4. Chiozza L. 5. Federico T. 6. Fernandez T. 3. Gorgerino C. 10. Gutierrez S. 7. Makarte R. 8. Mansilla M. 11. Perez M.	1. Lungarzo J. (G) 8. Amarilla C. 4. Chimino C. 6. Ferreyra M. 10. Guille B. 9. Ibarra C. 3. Lapetina L. 2. Moiraghi N. 7. Olivera M. 5. Stancato A. 11. Vargas M.
Substitutes
13. Berra T. 16. Cortadi A. 15. Hofstetter P. J. 20. Melean A. 17. Miori M. 14. Nunez L. 18. Pinoni F. 19. Speck N. 12. Zapata A. (G)	14. Bellone A. O. 19. Colmenares M. 18. Espejo L. 15. Fernandez S. 12. Geist C. (G) 17. Hernandez A. 13. Hertel L. 16. Ramirez D. 20. Susvielles J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
77', 1 - 0, Gutierrez S. ⚽,
84', 1 - 1, Centurion F. ⚽,

Preview

A direct battle for position between neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 2nd in the Promotion ~ Torneo Federal Playoffs and 4th in the Promotion ~ Torneo Federal Playoffs).

Alvarado has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Olimpo has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Olimpo could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this matchup, Alvarado is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Alvarado has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:2 (averaging 1:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Alvarado against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:0 goals.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Torneo Federal
13.09.26	Cipolletti - Alvarado	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Alvarado - Atenas Río Cuarto	3:2 ✺
30.08.26	Kimberley de Mar del Plata - Alvarado	0:2 ✺
16.08.26	Villa Mitre - Alvarado	0:0 ✺
12.08.26	Alvarado - Huracán Las Heras	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LWWTW
- Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Argentinian Torneo Federal
06.09.26	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Cipolletti	1:1 ✺
30.08.26	Atenas Río Cuarto - Olimpo Bahia Blanca	1:0 ✺
23.08.26	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Kimberley de Mar del Plata	1:0 ✺
16.08.26	Argentino Monte Maíz - Olimpo Bahia Blanca	1:1 ✺
12.08.26	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Villa Mitre	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Torneo Federal
24.05.26	Alvarado - Olimpo Bahia Blanca	2:0
22.03.26	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Alvarado	2:0

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