Match Info

J3 League - Round 11

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu (Kitakyushu) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Japan	14:00	DAZN Japan


	Giravanz Kitakyushu		Osaka

	1	X	2
	3.10	3.40	1.95
	3.15	3.35	1.95	Watch
	3.29	3.6	2.01
	3.33	3.65	2.02	Watch
	3.2	3.45	1.94
	3.21	3.4	1.99	Watch
	3.2	3.5	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.21 ↑ (3.1)	3.48 ↑ (3.25)	1.98 ↓ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Giravanz Kitakyushu
28.2%

Draw
26%

Osaka
45.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28.9%

27.5%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.8%

27.4%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Giravanz Kitakyushu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Giravanz Kitakyushu than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Osaka than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Giravanz Kitakyushu - Osaka Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Otani K. (G) 30. Fukumori K. 28. Yokokubo K. 3. Kamihashi R. 20. Yasumitsu S. 66. Takahashi D. (C) 14. Izawa H. 18. Hiramatsu S. 8. Yoshinaga M. 11. Koh S. 37. Yoshida K.	1. Sugawara H. (G) 2. Sakamoto K. 5. Minakuchi Y. 25. Kuwako R. 6. Tachino S. (C) 10. Kubo R. 11. Yoshida G. 14. Sumida S. 28. Toya T. 95. Isa K. 9. Shimada T.
Substitutes
27. Hara K. 4. Hasegawa K. 7. Hirahara R. 16. Maruyama S. 5. Narasaka T. 52. Nishimura M. 51. Sakashita Y. 41. Sugimoto M. (G) 19. Yoshihara F.	23. Akiyama T. 15. Fukui K. 21. Kimura H. 7. Kitsui T. 52. Kojima M. 17. Morimura S. 41. Nose R. 29. Sugawara R. 88. Umeda R. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Yoshida K. ⚽, Yasumitsu S. (A),
34', Isa K. ↓, Sugawara R. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Yoshida G. ↓, Kitsui T. ↑,
64', Yoshinaga M. ↓, Hirahara R. ↑,
65', Yoshida K. ↓, Nishimura M. ↑,
67', Kubo R. ↓, Morimura S. ↑,
74', 2 - 0, Takahashi D. ⚽,
75', Toya T. ↓, Fukui K. ↑,
75', Sakamoto K. ↓, Kojima M. ↑,
77', Morimura S. 🟨,
80', Shimada T. (Penalty Awarded),
82', 2 - 1, Sumida S. ⚽,
82', Izawa H. ↓, Sakashita Y. ↑,
84', 3 - 1, Nishimura M. ⚽,
85', Koh S. ↓, Narasaka T. ↑,
87', Sumida S. ↓, Akiyama T. ↑,
90+1', Tachino S. 🟨,
90+2', Takahashi D. ↓, Maruyama S. ↑,

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 16th and 6th in the Promotion - J3 League Promotion - Playoffs).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Giravanz won 2.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Giravanz may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Osaka is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Giravanz has recorded 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 6:3 (averaging 1:0.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Giravanz against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with 1:0 goals (averaging 0.3:0 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Osaka	13	6	5	2	23:13	10	23
12	Giravanz Kitakyushu	13	4	4	5	19:22	-3	16

Last Results with these Odds

Osaka - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 43.63%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Giravanz Kitakyushu
Japan J3 League
10.10.26	Nara Club - Giravanz Kitakyushu	2:0 ✺
03.10.26	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Kochi United	2:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Nagoya Grampus	1:3 ✺
Japan J3 League
26.09.26	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Kagoshima United	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Sagamihara - Giravanz Kitakyushu	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 LWLTW
- FC Osaka
Japan J3 League
09.10.26	Osaka - Zweigen Kanazawa	1:1 ✺
03.10.26	Sagamihara - Osaka	1:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
29.09.26	Osaka - Avispa Fukuoka	1:2 ET ✺
Japan J3 League
26.09.26	Kochi United - Osaka	0:4 ✺
18.09.26	Osaka - Fukushima United	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
19.09.25	Osaka - Giravanz Kitakyushu	0:3
05.04.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Osaka	1:0
19.10.24	Osaka - Giravanz Kitakyushu	3:2
20.03.24	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Osaka	0:0
24.09.23	Osaka - Giravanz Kitakyushu	0:0
16.07.23	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Osaka	0:0

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