Match Info

Kansallinen Liiga Women - Championship Group

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+


	Gnistan		HPS

	1	X	2
	5.00	4.40	1.44
	5.3	4.3	1.44
	5.04	4.44	1.42
	5.33	4.61	1.45	Watch
	4.9	4.35	1.39
	5.7	4.6	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.21 ↑ (4.35)	4.45 ↑ (4.1)	1.43 ↓ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gnistan
17.2%

Draw
20.1%

HPS
62.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.5%

21.8%

57.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.6%

20.9%

60.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gnistan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

HPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gnistan than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPS than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Gnistan - HPS Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Virtanen Espejo I. (G) 77. Byrne K. 20. Gurung D. 8. Kemppainen S. 5. Koota V. 12. Kraemer A. 4. Laine I. 10. Leppioja J. 16. Lindroth A. 27. Raisanen L. 14. Tiainen D.	1. Roine V. (G) 20. Jaaskelainen O. 8. Kinnunen A. 24. Nurminen M. 15. Oksanen V. 11. Paakkari E. 14. Perttula T. 9. Rinkinen H. 16. Simonen A. 17. Sinivuori F. 19. Stark T.
Substitutes
23. Ferm S. (G) 26. Karkkainen S. 22. Kattelus A. 19. Laurinkoski H. 18. Martikainen O. 21. Noguera I. 31. Salmela A. 9. Tarkiainen P. 24. Tuomainen H.	7. Kahre O. 12. Kamppi P. 2. Kataja M. 13. Kohtamaki A. 23. Korpela T. (G) 77. Punsar M. 21. Puolakka L. 5. Reis O. 26. Talka M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', 0 - 1, Rinkinen H. ⚽,
37', 1 - 1, Kraemer A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
75', 1 - 2, Jaaskelainen O. ⚽,
80', 1 - 3, Simonen A. ⚽,
82', Koota V. 🟨,
90+2', Punsar M. 🟨,

Preview

Gnistan is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

HPS has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

HPS may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, HPS has had a series of home games.

In this match, HPS is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Gnistan won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.5:3).

Including home match between the teams, Gnistan won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	HPS W	22	12	5	5	34:25	9	41
6	Gnistan W	22	5	1	16	29:56	-27	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IF Gnistan Women
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
29.08.26	KuPS - Gnistan	2:0 ✺
23.08.26	Gnistan - Åland United	2:3 ✺
15.08.26	Ilves - Gnistan	1:2 ✺
12.08.26	Gnistan - HJK	1:3 ✺
25.07.26	Gnistan - KuPS	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLWLL
- Helsingin Palloseura Women
Finnish Cup Women
06.09.26	HPS - HJK	1:3 AET ✺
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
29.08.26	HPS - Ilves	1:0 ✺
21.08.26	HPS - HJK	3:3 ✺
16.08.26	Åland United - HPS	2:1 ✺
08.08.26	HPS - KuPS	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
13.06.26	HPS - Gnistan	4:0
04.04.26	Gnistan - HPS	1:2

Gnistan - HPS: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide