Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE A - ROUND 17

Date: 30 July 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio da Serrinha (Goiania)

Referee: Zanovelli P. C. (Bra)


	Goiás		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.2	2.7
	2.7	3.2	2.65
	2.9	3.25	2.48
	2.79	3.32	2.72
	2.88	3.1	2.2
	2.68	3.32	2.61	Watch
	2.65	3.2	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↓ (3.25)	3.23 ↓ (3.39)	2.57 ↑ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Goiás
34.1%

Draw
29.2%

Grêmio
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.8%

27.7%

43.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

27%

44.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Goiás has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Goiás's performance.

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Grêmio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Goiás than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Goiás that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	16.7%	27.8%

Goiás - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Goiás will win (votes: 10 - 55.6%). Grêmio will win (votes: 5 - 27.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Goiás: 32.6% – 78.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Tadeu (C) 2. Maguinho 3. Lucas Halter 4. Sidimar 6. Sander 12. Willian Oliveira 40. Everton Morelli 70. Anderson Oliveira 60. Guilherme 7. Vinicius 45. Joao Magno	12. Gabriel Grando (G) 18. Joao Pedro 53. Gustavo Martins 15. Bruno Uvini 34. Bruno Alves 54. Cuiabano 14. Nathan 20. Villasanti M. 35. Ronald 39. Bitelo 9. Suarez L. (C)
Substitutes
27. Alesson 77. Allano 22. Apodi 19. Bruno Melo 13. Bruno Santos 11. Diego Goncalves 66. Hugo 55. Luis Oyama 88. Marcelo Rangel (G) 9. Matheus Babi 8. Meritao H. 95. Rodrigues Adelino dos Santos V.	77. Andre 1. Brenno (G) 2. Fabio 41. Felipe Scheibig (G) 10. Ferreira 17. Gustavinho 38. Lian 45. Mila 36. Nata 32. Ribeiro N. 51. Wesley 48. Zinho
Coaches
Evangelista A.	Renato Portaluppi

Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Goiás won 1.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Recently Grêmio have a series of home games.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Goiás: Diego (Injury) Gabriel Novaes (Injury) Palacios J. (Injury)

There will not play in Grêmio: Jhonata Robert (Injury) Pedro Geromel (Injury) Pepe (Injury)

Last 12 head-to-head matches Goiás won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 9-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Goiás won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Goiás EC
Brazilian Serie A
23.07.23	Cruzeiro - Goiás	0:1 ✺
17.07.23	Goiás - Atlético Mineiro	0:0 ✺
09.07.23	Santos - Goiás	4:3 ✺
03.07.23	Goiás - Coritiba	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.06.23	Independiente Santa Fe - Goiás	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.7 WTLLW
- Grêmio RS
Copa do Brasil
26.07.23	Grêmio - Flamengo	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
22.07.23	Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.07.23	Grêmio - Bahia	2:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
09.07.23	Grêmio - Botafogo RJ	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
04.07.23	Bahia - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
12.12.20	Goiás - Grêmio	0:0
30.11.20	Grêmio - Goiás	2:1
08.12.19	Goiás - Grêmio	3:2
15.09.19	Grêmio - Goiás	3:0
Copa do Brasil
09.05.18	Grêmio - Goiás	3:1
25.04.18	Goiás - Grêmio	0:2
Brazilian Serie A
06.09.15	Grêmio - Goiás	2:1

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