Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 10

Date: 25 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Usa	Fanatiz


	Grêmio		Bahia

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.25	3.2	Watch
	2.45	3.2	3
	2.5	3.1	2.95	Watch
	2.47	3.22	3.15
	2.58	3.08	2.96	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.9
	2.51	3.13	3	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.45)	3.15 ↓ (3.24)	3.01 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
38.3%

Draw
30.2%

Bahia
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.4%

29.1%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

29.3%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	4.2%	4.2%

Grêmio - Bahia Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 18 - 90%). Bahia will win (votes: 1 - 5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 76.9% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Grêmio will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tiago Volpi (G) 18. Joao Pedro 3. Wagner Leonardo 4. Walter Kannemann (C) 23. Marlon 20. Villasanti M. 17. Dodi 10. Cristaldo F. 99. Olivera C. 22. Braithwaite M. 9. Amuzu F.	22. Marcos Felipe (G) 2. Gilberto 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 19. Caio Alexandre 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 15. Michel Araujo 8. Cauly 9. Rodriguez L. 16. Erick Pulga
Substitutes
47. Alysson 16. Aravena A. 19. Arezo M. 15. Camilo Reijers 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 53. Gustavo Martins 36. Luan Candido 25. Lucas Esteves 14. Nathan 7. Pavon C. 35. Ronald 44. Viery	13. Arias S. 83. Fred Lippert 3. Gabriel Xavier 25. Iago Borduchi 37. Kayky 26. Nicolas Acevedo 11. Rodrigo 96. Ronaldo Strada (G) 52. Ruan Pablo 77. Tiago 70. Vitinho 12. Willian Jose
Coaches
Mano Menezes	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Joao Pedro ↓, Ronald ↑,
26', Cristaldo F. 🟨,
28', Amuzu F. 🟨,
35', David Duarte 🟨,
39', Ramos S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Amuzu F. ↓, Pavon C. ↑,
60', Everton Ribeiro 🟨,
61', 1 - 0, Braithwaite M. (Pen),
68', Rodriguez L. ↓, Willian Jose ↑,
68', Everton Ribeiro ↓, Kayky ↑,
68', Michel Araujo ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
74', Cristaldo F. ↓, Gustavo Martins ↑,
79', Olivera C. ↓, Aravena A. ↑,
79', Braithwaite M. ↓, Arezo M. ↑,
84', Cauly ↓, Iago Borduchi ↑,
84', Gilberto ↓, Arias S. ↑,
90+5', Pavon C. 🟨,
90+10', Aravena A. 🟨,
90+13', Caio Alexandre 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Grêmio: Cuellar G. (Muscle Injury) Gabriel Mec (Ankle Injury) Jemerson (Yellow Cards) Joao Lucas (Muscle Injury) Monsalve M. (Muscle Injury) Rodrigo Ely (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Bahia: Ademir (Muscle Injury) Arias S. (Muscle Injury) Jean Lucas (Red Card) Kanu (Muscle Injury) Rezende (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Grêmio: Edenilson (Thigh Injury) Gustavo Martins (Knee Injury) Igor Serrote (Wrist Injury) Mayk (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 21:17. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.2:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Copa do Brasil
20.05.25	Grêmio - CS Alagoano	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.25	São Paulo - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.05.25	Grêmio - Godoy Cruz	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.25	Grêmio - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.25	Atlético Grau - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLTTT
- EC Bahia
Copa do Brasil
21.05.25	Bahia - Paysandu	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.05.25	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.05.25	Atlético Nacional - Bahia	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.25	Flamengo - Bahia	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.25	Bahia - Nacional Montevideo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
17.08.24	Grêmio - Bahia	0:2
27.04.24	Bahia - Grêmio	1:0
04.11.23	Grêmio - Bahia	1:0
Copa do Brasil
12.07.23	Grêmio - Bahia	2:1 penalties
04.07.23	Bahia - Grêmio	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
01.07.23	Bahia - Grêmio	1:2
Brazilian Serie B
16.10.22	Grêmio - Bahia	1:1

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