Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 25

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Pereira R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Brazil	Premiere
Germany	Laola1, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Grêmio		Chapecoense

	1	X	2
	1.49	4	6.5	Watch
	1.55	4.20	5.75
	1.48	3.85	6.8
	1.55	4.18	6.89
	1.58	4.1	5.82	Watch
	1.53	4.1	6.75
	1.59	4.1	6.28	Watch
	1.52	4.2	6.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.47)	4.09 ↑ (4.08)	6.37 ↓ (6.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
61.9%

Draw
23.2%

Chapecoense
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63%

22.7%

14.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.8%

21.7%

13.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Chapecoense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	60%	0%

Grêmio - Chapecoense Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - Grêmio (1.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weverton (G) 7. Pavon C. 6. Gustavo Martins 82. Wallace 23. Marlon 20. Villasanti M. (C) 15. Danilo Barbosa 99. Enamorado J. 10. Krovinovic F. 77. Cabral J. 22. Braithwaite M.	98. Anderson (G) 5. Heitor 21. Kauan 3. Eduardo Doma (C) 91. Bruno Pacheco 88. Yago Felipe 16. Bruno Matias 7. Marcinho 10. Giovanni Augusto 31. Mauricio Garcez 9. Tulio
Substitutes
9. Amuzu F. 50. Bernardo Zortea 95. Carlos Vinicius 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 40. Jefinho 18. Joao Pedro 30. Matheus Nascimento 54. Pedro Gabriel 65. Riquelme 11. Tete 3. Wagner Leonardo 4. Walter Kannemann	77. Borrero D. 80. Carvalho M. 19. David Antunes 97. Enio 26. Everton 12. Fernando 44. Luciano 30. Matheus Aurelio (G) 15. Rafael Thyere 29. Rossi F. 70. Rubens Ricoldi
Coaches
Castro L.	Rafael Lacerda

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Mauricio Garcez ⚽, Giovanni Augusto (A),
18', 1 - 1, Gustavo Martins ⚽, Enamorado J. (A),
28', 2 - 1, Pavon C. ⚽,
40', Marlon 🟨,
44', Walter Kannemann 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Marlon ↓, Pedro Gabriel ↑,
52', Enamorado J. ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
52', Braithwaite M. ↓, Carlos Vinicius ↑,
55', Eduardo Doma 🟨,
56', 3 - 1, Gustavo Martins ⚽, Pavon C. (A),
61', Mauricio Garcez ↓, Rossi F. ↑,
61', Bruno Matias ↓, Carvalho M. ↑,
65', Danilo Barbosa ↓, Bernardo Zortea ↑,
71', Bruno Pacheco 🟨,
75', Bruno Pacheco ↓, Fernando ↑,
76', Amuzu F. ↓, Tete ↑,
80', Giovanni Augusto ↓, Enio ↑,
80', Marcinho ↓, Borrero D. ↑,
90+2', Tete 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Chapecoense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Grêmio is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Grêmio: Dodi (Knee Injury) Nardoni J. (Knee Injury) Noriega E. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Chapecoense: Bolasie Y. (Injury) Bruno Tubarao (Inactive) Camilo Reijers (Yellow Cards) Joao Paulo (Health problems) Max Alves (Injury) Rafael Carvalheira (Knee Injury) Robert Conceicao (Knee Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 29:22. (average 1.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.3:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30
20	Chapecoense-SC	28	3	9	16	29:57	-28	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Copa do Brasil
27.08.26	Internacional RS - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
23.08.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Grêmio	1:0 ✺
16.08.26	Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio	3:0 ✺
08.08.26	Grêmio - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
05.08.26	Grêmio - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TLLWW
- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie A
23.08.26	Chapecoense - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
16.08.26	Chapecoense - Bahia	3:3 ✺
08.08.26	Coritiba - Chapecoense	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
05.08.26	Cruzeiro - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
02.08.26	Chapecoense - Cruzeiro	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
04.07.26	Grêmio - Chapecoense	1:2
Brazilian Serie A
16.03.26	Chapecoense - Grêmio	1:1
Brazilian Serie B
26.07.22	Chapecoense - Grêmio	0:0
15.04.22	Grêmio - Chapecoense	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
20.11.21	Chapecoense - Grêmio	1:3
09.08.21	Grêmio - Chapecoense	2:1
10.11.19	Chapecoense - Grêmio	0:1

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