Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 23

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Location: MRV Arena (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Laola1
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Atlético Mineiro		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.4	4.5	Watch
	1.83	3.60	4.20
	1.85	3.4	4.1	Watch
	1.91	3.61	4.56
	1.85	3.7	4.22	Watch
	1.85	3.55	4.5
	1.86	3.54	4.52	Watch
	1.84	3.55	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↑ (1.76)	3.54 ↑ (3.52)	4.39 ↓ (4.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Mineiro
51.4%

Draw
26.9%

Grêmio
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

26.6%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: Atlético Mineiro will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Everson (C) 23. Preciado A. 4. Ruan Tressoldi 14. Vitor Hugo 6. Lodi R. 39. Cisse M. 21. Franco A. 28. Cuello 30. Victor Hugo 17. Igor Gomes 9. Cassierra M.	1. Weverton (G) 27. Diego Caito 6. Gustavo Martins 82. Wallace 54. Pedro Gabriel 8. Noriega E. 7. Pavon C. 5. Nardoni J. 17. Dodi 9. Amuzu F. 95. Carlos Vinicius (C)
Substitutes
11. Bernard 18. Borbas T. 15. Castano K. 92. Dudu 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 8. Maycon 27. Minda A. 2. Natanael 36. Pascini K. 25. Perez T. 19. Reinier 40. Vitao	50. Bernardo Zortea 22. Braithwaite M. 77. Cabral J. 38. Caio Paulista 99. Enamorado J. 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 37. Gabriel Mec 10. Krovinovic F. 14. Marcos Rocha 21. Tete 3. Wagner Leonardo 4. Walter Kannemann
Coaches
Dominguez E.	Castro L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Vitor Hugo ⚽, Igor Gomes (A),
31', Igor Gomes ↓, Bernard ↑,
39', Pavon C. 🟨,
42', Preciado A. 🟨,
45+2', Cisse M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Gustavo Martins ↓, Walter Kannemann ↑,
46', Pavon C. ↓, Tete ↑,
46', Nardoni J. ↓, Krovinovic F. ↑,
57', Lodi R. 🟨,
61', Walter Kannemann 🟨,
61', Franco A. ↓, Maycon ↑,
61', Cisse M. ↓, Castano K. ↑,
62', 2 - 0, Cuello ⚽, Lodi R. (A),
63', Dodi ↓, Gabriel Mec ↑,
66', 3 - 0, Cuello ⚽,
69', Pedro Gabriel 🟨,
76', Pedro Gabriel ↓, Caio Paulista ↑,
81', Cuello ↓, Dudu ↑,
81', Victor Hugo ↓, Minda A. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 2.

Atlético MG is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Grêmio has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Grêmio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Atlético MG has had a series of away games.

Recently, Grêmio has had a series of home games.

In this match, Atlético MG is the team to beat.

There will not play in Atlético MG: Duarte L. (Hamstring Injury) Gustavo Scarpa (Muscle Injury) Indio (Knee Injury) Patrick Silva (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Grêmio: Joao Pedro (Inactive) Tete (Injury) Willian (Inactive)

There are questionable in Atlético MG: Lyanco (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 28:36. (average 1.4:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:17. (average 1.9:1.9).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Atletico-MG: 0.33%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Atletico-MG	30	13	8	9	41:35	6	47
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Mineiro
Copa Sudamericana
12.08.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Atlético Mineiro	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
08.08.26	Remo - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
04.08.26	Juventude - Atlético Mineiro	0:1 ✺
01.08.26	Atlético Mineiro - Juventude	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.07.26	Palmeiras - Atlético Mineiro	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.8 WTWTW
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
08.08.26	Grêmio - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
05.08.26	Grêmio - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
02.08.26	Mirassol - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
30.07.26	Grêmio - Bolívar	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.07.26	Grêmio - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro	2:1
17.08.25	Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio	1:3
29.03.25	Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro	2:1
09.10.24	Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio	2:1
01.09.24	Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro	2:3
26.11.23	Atlético Mineiro - Grêmio	3:0
22.07.23	Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro	1:0

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