Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 23

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Arena Condá (Chapecó)

Referee: Muniz dos Santos D. C. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Germany	Laola1
Mexico	Fanatiz
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Usa	Fanatiz, SportsEngine Play


	Chapecoense		Bahia

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.3	2.1	Watch
	3.40	3.50	2.05
	3.35	3.2	2.12	Watch
	3.66	3.5	2.19
	3.54	3.44	2.11	Watch
	3.55	3.35	2.16
	3.69	3.4	2.15	Watch
	3.5	3.4	2.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.51 ↑ (3.36)	3.39 ↓ (3.48)	2.13 ↑ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chapecoense
27.1%

Draw
28.1%

Bahia
44.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.9%

27%

45.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

26.4%

46.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Chapecoense - Bahia Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Anderson (G) 5. Heitor 21. Kauan 3. Eduardo Doma (C) 12. Fernando 88. Yago Felipe 27. Camilo Reijers 16. Bruno Matias 94. Ramirez K. 10. Giovanni Augusto 7. Marcinho	1. Ronaldo Strada (G) 31. Gomez R. 33. David Duarte 21. Ramos S. 46. Luciano Juba 57. Kaue Junior 6. Jean Lucas 5. Nicolas Acevedo (C) 11. Rodrigo 16. Erick Pulga 9. Veliz A.
Substitutes
91. Bruno Pacheco 19. David Antunes 97. Enio 26. Everton 6. Mancha 30. Matheus Aurelio (G) 18. Neto Pessoa 15. Rafael Thyere 29. Rossi F. 70. Rubens Ricoldi 9. Tulio 25. Victor Caetano	8. Caio Alexandre 14. Erick 27. Everaldo 17. Herrera G. (G) 4. Kanu 44. Marcos Victor 15. Michel Araujo 3. Moreno M. 99. Olivera C. 23. Sanabria M. 12. Willian Jose 66. Ze Guilherme
Coaches
Rafael Lacerda	Mucke R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
13', 0 - 1, Veliz A. (Penalty Awarded),
19', 1 - 1, Giovanni Augusto ⚽, Yago Felipe (A),
42', 1 - 2, Kauan (Own goal),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Ramirez K. ↓, Tulio ↑,
46', Heitor ↓, Everton ↑,
46', Bruno Matias ↓, Rossi F. ↑,
48', 2 - 2, Marcinho ⚽, Giovanni Augusto (A),
65', 2 - 3, Nicolas Acevedo ⚽, Jean Lucas (A),
66', Gomez R. ↓, Caio Alexandre ↑,
66', Jean Lucas ↓, Erick ↑,
67', Kaue Junior ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,
67', Luciano Juba ↓, Ze Guilherme ↑,
72', 3 - 3, Tulio ⚽, Giovanni Augusto (A),
78', Yago Felipe ↓, David Antunes ↑,
78', Fernando ↓, Bruno Pacheco ↑,
83', Rodrigo ↓, Michel Araujo ↑,
84', Sanabria M. 🟨,
89', Camilo Reijers 🟨,
90+2', Erick 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 2.

Chapecoense has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Bahia has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Bahia could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Chapecoense: Bolasie Y. (Injury) Joao Paulo (Health problems) Mauricio Garcez (Thigh Injury) Rafael Carvalheira (Knee Injury) Robert Conceicao (Knee Injury) Victor Caetano (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Bahia: Ademir (Yellow Cards) Erick (Inactive) Everton Ribeiro (Inactive) Leo Vieira (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Chapecoense: Max Alves (Injury)

There are questionable in Bahia: Ademir (Injury) Luciano Juba (Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Chapecoense won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bahia	29	12	10	7	43:36	7	46
20	Chapecoense-SC	28	3	9	16	29:57	-28	18

Last Results with these Odds

Chapecoense - the odds 3.36 are the expected chance of winning is 27.87%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Bahia - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 45.16%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie A
08.08.26	Coritiba - Chapecoense	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
05.08.26	Cruzeiro - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
02.08.26	Chapecoense - Cruzeiro	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.07.26	Santos - Chapecoense	2:2 ✺
22.07.26	Chapecoense - Flamengo	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LLTTL
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.26	Bahia - Vasco da Gama	0:0 ✺
29.07.26	Fluminense - Bahia	0:0 ✺
26.07.26	Bahia - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
21.07.26	Atlético Mineiro - Bahia	1:1 ✺
17.07.26	Bahia - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
17.07.26	Bahia - Chapecoense	2:0
Brazilian Serie B
30.09.22	Chapecoense - Bahia	3:1
14.06.22	Bahia - Chapecoense	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
24.10.21	Bahia - Chapecoense	3:0
04.07.21	Chapecoense - Bahia	0:2
06.11.19	Bahia - Chapecoense	1:1
28.07.19	Chapecoense - Bahia	0:0

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