Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 2

Date: 14 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Vargas Carreno G. A. (Bol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DSports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Peru	DSports 1611
Portugal	Sport TV1
South-america	DGO Latin America, ViX Latin America
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Latino, Tubi TV


	Grêmio		Deportivo Riestra

	1	X	2
	1.83	2.8	6.25	Watch
	1.82	2.92	5.4	Watch
	1.84	2.96	6.34
	1.85	2.97	5.68	Watch
	1.85	2.75	5	Watch
	1.86	2.89	6.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.37)	2.88 ↓ (4.22)	5.91 ↓ (8.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
51.3%

Draw
32.8%

Deportivo Riestra
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.6%

21.9%

10.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.8%

16.1%

14.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grêmio's form might have worsened.

Deportivo Riestra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Deportivo Riestra's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Riestra than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	27.3%	18.2%

Grêmio - Deportivo Riestra Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Deportivo Riestra will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Grêmio (2.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weverton (G) 7. Pavon C. 2. Fabian Balbuena (C) 44. Viery 54. Pedro Gabriel 5. Nardoni J. 19. Noriega E. 37. Gabriel Mec 21. Tete 22. Braithwaite M. 17. Dodi	1. Arce I. (G) 24. Mino F. 19. Randazzo J. (C) 6. Barbieri M. 28. Sayavedra R. 35. Stringa A. 16. Watson N. 14. Monje P. 27. Goitia J. 32. Flores G. 40. Obredor G.
Substitutes
9. Amuzu F. 77. Andre Henrique 8. Arthur Melo 38. Caio Paulista 95. Carlos Vinicius 99. Enamorado J. 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 14. Marcos Rocha 11. Monsalve M. 33. Perez L. 3. Wagner Leonardo 4. Walter Kannemann	7. Alonso A. 29. Dramisino A. 34. Duarte L. 13. Gallo R. 9. Herrera J. 21. Ingratti J. 12. Lopez I. (G) 25. Madero P. 4. Murillo Yaison 47. Romero T. 37. Sanchez D. 31. Smarra M.
Coaches
Castro L.	Benitez G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Tete ↓, Amuzu F. ↑,
46', Gabriel Mec ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
46', Dodi ↓, Arthur Melo ↑,
47', Nardoni J. 🟥,
55', Flores G. ↓, Alonso A. ↑,
58', Braithwaite M. ↓, Carlos Vinicius ↑,
74', Sayavedra R. ↓, Gallo R. ↑,
74', Obredor G. ↓, Madero P. ↑,
79', Fabian Balbuena ↓, Monsalve M. ↑,
82', Monsalve M. 🟨,
84', Stringa A. ↓, Dramisino A. ↑,
87', 1 - 0, Amuzu F. ⚽, Enamorado J. (A),
89', Carlos Vinicius 🟨,
90+2', Dramisino A. 🟨,
90+6', Enamorado J. 🟨,
90+7', Watson N. 🟨,
90+8', Gabriel Grando 🟨,

Preview

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Deportivo Riestra may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Grêmio has had a series of away games.

In this match, Grêmio is the undeniable favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
11.04.26	Internacional RS - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.26	Montevideo City Torque - Grêmio	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.04.26	Grêmio - Remo	0:0 ✺
02.04.26	Palmeiras - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Vasco da Gama - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TLTLL
- Deportivo Riestra
Argentinian Liga Profesional
11.04.26	Deportivo Riestra - Instituto Córdoba	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.26	Deportivo Riestra - Palestino	0:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.04.26	Unión Santa Fe - Deportivo Riestra	2:0 ✺
25.03.26	Deportivo Riestra - San Lorenzo	1:1 ✺
17.03.26	Central Córdoba - Deportivo Riestra	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LTLTL

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