Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 7

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Usa	Fanatiz


	Grêmio		Vitória Salvador

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.4	4.75	Watch
	1.85	3.7	4.1
	1.82	3.35	4.45	Watch
	1.87	3.48	4.95
	1.83	3.52	4.59	Watch
	1.8	3.3	4.4
	1.82	3.5	5.14	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.67)	3.46 ↓ (3.97)	4.63 ↓ (4.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio
52.1%

Draw
27.4%

Vitória Salvador
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.9%

23.9%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.6%

23.2%

18.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Vitória Salvador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitória Salvador than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Grêmio - Vitória Salvador Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Grêmio (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Grêmio will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weverton (G) 7. Pavon C. 2. Fabian Balbuena 44. Viery 23. Marlon (C) 5. Nardoni J. 33. Perez L. 99. Enamorado J. 10. Willian 9. Amuzu F. 95. Carlos Vinicius	1. Lucas Arcanjo (G) 45. Nathan Mendes 4. Camutanga 25. Caca 13. Ramon 95. Caique Goncalves 44. Baralhas (C) 6. Emmanuel Martinez 33. Erick 79. Renato Kayzer 10. Matheuzinho
Substitutes
77. Andre Henrique 22. Braithwaite M. 38. Caio Paulista 17. Dodi 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 37. Gabriel Mec 14. Marcos Rocha 11. Monsalve M. 19. Noriega E. 21. Tete 3. Wagner Leonardo 4. Walter Kannemann	28. Anderson 17. Cantalapiedra A. 59. de Jesus Soares G. 26. Edenilson 23. Fabricio 22. Gabriel (G) 83. Jamerson 31. Lopez R. 77. Neris 8. Ronald Lopes 12. Tarzia D. 88. Ze Vitor
Coaches
Castro L.	Jair Ventura

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Camutanga (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', 2 - 0, Amuzu F. ⚽, Weverton (A),
56', Willian ↓, Monsalve M. ↑,
56', Nardoni J. ↓, Noriega E. ↑,
59', Renato Kayzer 🟨,
63', Nathan Mendes 🟨,
75', Nathan Mendes ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
75', Camutanga ↓, Cantalapiedra A. ↑,
76', Marlon ↓, Caio Paulista ↑,
86', Amuzu F. ↓, Gabriel Mec ↑,
86', Enamorado J. ↓, Tete ↑,
87', Erick ↓, Fabricio ↑,
87', Matheuzinho ↓, Tarzia D. ↑,
90', Gabriel Mec 🟨,
90+3', Renato Kayzer ↓, Anderson ↑,
90+5', Cantalapiedra A. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 3.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Grêmio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Grêmio is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Grêmio: Arthur Melo (Injury) Braithwaite M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Gustavo Martins (Inactive) Joao Pedro (Inactive) Marlon (Inactive) Villasanti M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Vitória: Claudinho (Muscle Injury) Dudu (Inactive) Edu (Injury) Fintelman (Hip Injury) Ramos R. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Vitória: Marinho (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 24:9. (average 1.5:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Grêmio won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 14:4. (average 1.8:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33:44	-11	36
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30

Last Results with these Odds

Vitória Salvador - the odds 4.94 are the expected chance of winning is 19.22%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
16.03.26	Chapecoense - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
12.03.26	Grêmio - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
08.03.26	Internacional RS - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Grêmio - Internacional RS	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 TTTWW
- EC Vitória Salvador
Brazilian Serie A
14.03.26	Vitória Salvador - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
11.03.26	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Baiano
07.03.26	Bahia - Vitória Salvador	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Vitória Salvador - Jacuipense	2:1 penalties ✺
22.02.26	Vitória Salvador - Galícia	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
28.09.25	Grêmio - Vitória Salvador	3:1
27.04.25	Vitória Salvador - Grêmio	1:1
04.12.24	Vitória Salvador - Grêmio	1:1
21.07.24	Grêmio - Vitória Salvador	2:0
Copa do Brasil
03.08.21	Grêmio - Vitória Salvador	1:0
27.07.21	Vitória Salvador - Grêmio	0:3
Brazilian Serie A
25.11.18	Vitória Salvador - Grêmio	0:0

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