Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 6

Date: 16 March 2026, Monday

Location: Arena Condá (Chapecó)

Referee: Vasconcelos B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Portugal	Canal 11


	Chapecoense		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.4	2.3	Watch
	2.85	3.3	2.5
	2.92	3.35	2.32
	3.07	3.5	2.42
	2.99	3.48	2.35	Watch
	2.9	3.2	2.25
	3.15	3.51	2.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↑ (2.83)	3.39 ↑ (3.1)	2.35 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chapecoense
31.9%

Draw
27.9%

Grêmio
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

29.5%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

29.6%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Chapecoense - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Grêmio will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Grêmio: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Leo Vieira (G) 26. Everton 33. Bruno Leonardo (C) 3. Eduardo Doma 99. Rafael Carvalheira 5. Joao Vitor 22. Higor Meritao 37. Clar W. 10. Giovanni Augusto 77. Italo 11. Bolasie Y.	1. Weverton (G) 7. Pavon C. 2. Fabian Balbuena (C) 44. Viery 38. Caio Paulista 19. Noriega E. 21. Tete 11. Monsalve M. 5. Nardoni J. 9. Amuzu F. 95. Carlos Vinicius
Substitutes
91. Bruno Pacheco 19. David Antunes 97. Enio 20. Jean Carlos 4. Joao Paulo 7. Marcinho 18. Neto Pessoa 9. Pedro Perotti 1. Rafael Santos (G) 70. Rubens Ricoldi 25. Victor Caetano 17. Vinicius Balieiro	77. Andre Henrique 17. Dodi 99. Enamorado J. 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 37. Gabriel Mec 14. Marcos Rocha 54. Pedro Gabriel 33. Perez L. 39. Tiago 3. Wagner Leonardo 4. Walter Kannemann 10. Willian
Coaches
Gilmar Pozzo	Castro L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
26', Viery 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Clar W. (Penalty Awarded),
38', Everton 🟨,
44', Bolasie Y. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 1, Nardoni J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', Monsalve M. 🟨,
58', Italo ↓, Marcinho ↑,
59', Giovanni Augusto ↓, Jean Carlos ↑,
61', Amuzu F. ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
61', Monsalve M. ↓, Willian ↑,
74', Tete ↓, Gabriel Mec ↑,
84', Joao Vitor ↓, David Antunes ↑,
84', Bolasie Y. ↓, Pedro Perotti ↑,
87', Eduardo Doma 🟨,
90+2', Noriega E. 🟨,
90+2', Higor Meritao ↓, Vinicius Balieiro ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 1.

In recent matches, Chapecoense has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Grêmio is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Chapecoense: Bruno Matias (Knee Injury) Mancha (Knee Injury) Marcos Vinicius (Inactive) Mauricio Garcez (Inactive)

There will not play in Grêmio: Arthur Melo (Injury) Villasanti M. (Knee Injury) Willian (Inactive)

There are questionable in Chapecoense: Robert Conceicao (Inactive)

There are questionable in Grêmio: Amuzu F. (Inactive) Braithwaite M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 19:27. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Chapecoense won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:16. (average 1.3:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Gremio	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30
20	Chapecoense-SC	28	3	9	16	29:57	-28	18

Last Results with these Odds

Grêmio - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 38.11%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie A
12.03.26	São Paulo - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
08.03.26	Chapecoense - Barra Santa Catarina	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Chapecoense	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Chapecoense - Brusque	3:0 ✺
14.02.26	Brusque - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LWLWL
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
12.03.26	Grêmio - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
08.03.26	Internacional RS - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Grêmio - Internacional RS	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.02.26	Grêmio - Atlético Mineiro	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
22.02.26	Juventude - Grêmio	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
26.07.22	Chapecoense - Grêmio	0:0
15.04.22	Grêmio - Chapecoense	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
20.11.21	Chapecoense - Grêmio	1:3
09.08.21	Grêmio - Chapecoense	2:1
10.11.19	Chapecoense - Grêmio	0:1
05.08.19	Grêmio - Chapecoense	3:3
18.11.18	Grêmio - Chapecoense	2:0

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