Match Info

Serie B - Round 13

Date: 14 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Novo Horizonte)

Referee: Bauermann G. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4


	Grêmio Novorizontino		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3.5	Watch
	2.10	3.10	3.30
	2.12	3.1	3.45	Watch
	2.24	3.25	3.69
	2.19	3.11	3.5	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3.4
	2.13	3.13	3.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (2.07)	3.1 ↓ (3.2)	3.48 ↓ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio Novorizontino
43.1%

Draw
30.1%

Náutico Capibaribe
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

29.2%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

29.8%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	22.2%	11.1%

Grêmio Novorizontino - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Novorizontino will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Náutico will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Novorizontino: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (2.15) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Jordi (G) 20. Castrillon N. 26. Gabriel Bahia 4. Patrick 66. Maykon Jesus 17. Matheus Bianqui 18. Leo Naldi 16. Vinicius Paiva 10. Romulo 19. Diego Galo 11. Robson (C)	1. Muriel Becker (C) 93. Reginaldo 34. Wanderson 3. Betao 23. Igor Fernandes 19. Leonai Souza 8. Wenderson 7. Vinicius 10. Dodo 11. Victor Andrade 72. Derek
Substitutes
9. Carlao 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 27. Diego Mathias 14. Eduardo Brock 77. Helio Borges 22. Ivan Alvarino 50. Juninho 21. Kauan Alemao 6. Luis Oyama 30. Nicolas Careca 8. Ortiz C. 15. Tavinho	2. Arnaldo 5. Auremir 98. Felipe Saraiva 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 46. Gustavo Henrique 77. Juninho 29. Junior Todinho 66. Leo Jance 16. Luiz Claudio 27. Luiz Felipe 14. Matheus Ribeiro 41. Samuel Felix
Coaches
Moreira E.	Helio dos Anjos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', Betao 🟨,
29', Matheus Bianqui 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Dodo ⚽,
39', Reginaldo 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Diego Galo ↓, Juninho ↑,
46', Matheus Bianqui ↓, Luis Oyama ↑,
63', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Carlao ↑,
66', Reginaldo ↓, Matheus Ribeiro ↑,
66', Victor Andrade ↓, Junior Todinho ↑,
67', 1 - 1, Juninho ⚽, Carlao (A),
71', Leonai Souza ↓, Luiz Felipe ↑,
74', Jordi 🟨,
76', 1 - 2, Dodo (Penalty Awarded),
79', 2 - 2, Robson ⚽,
86', Junior Todinho ↓, Felipe Saraiva ↑,
86', Igor Fernandes ↓, Arnaldo ↑,
86', Castrillon N. ↓, Kauan Alemao ↑,
88', Romulo ↓, Tavinho ↑,
90+3', Juninho 🟨,
90+5', Derek 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 7).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Novorizontino may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Novorizontino will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Novorizontino: Diego Mathias (Inactive) Eduardo Brock (Injury) Lora J. (Inactive) Lucas Pereira (Inactive) Marlon (Inactive) Paulo Henrique (Inactive) Sander (Inactive)

There will not play in Náutico: Mateus Silva (Yellow Cards)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:3. (average 3.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Novorizontino won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:0.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Novorizontino: 12.63% Nautico: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52:27	25	54
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39:38	1	42

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
10.06.26	Goiás - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:4 ✺
31.05.26	São Bernardo - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
27.05.26	Chapecoense - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
23.05.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ceará	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
20.05.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Chapecoense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WTTWL
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
09.06.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
30.05.26	Sport Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0 ✺
22.05.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
16.05.26	Operário Ferroviario - Náutico Capibaribe	2:6 ✺
10.05.26	Náutico Capibaribe - América Mineiro	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
14.10.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Náutico Capibaribe	6:0
02.07.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Grêmio Novorizontino	3:1

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