Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 29

Date: 6 April 2025, Sunday


	Gran Peña		UD Ourense

	1	X	2
	4.6	3.75	1.57
	5.4	3.65	1.55
	5.61	3.74	1.56
	5.62	3.68	1.54
	5.4	3.65	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.33 ↓ (7.37)	3.69 ↓ (4.4)	1.55 ↑ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Gran Peña
17%

Draw
24.6%

UD Ourense
58.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.4%

20.7%

67%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.9%

19.8%

70%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gran Peña has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

UD Ourense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and UD Ourense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gran Peña than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gran Peña that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UD Ourense than the current prediction. (+11.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that UD Ourense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Gran Peña - UD Ourense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Fernandez Rodriguez M. A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
83', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 10 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Gran Peña won 2.

Recent matches Gran Peña is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

UD Ourense is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match UD Ourense is absolute favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Gran Peña won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 15:10 (average 1.9:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Gran Peña won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9:3 (average 2.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gran Peña FC
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
30.03.25	Betanzos - Gran Peña	2:1 ✺
23.03.25	Gran Peña - Polvorín	3:2 ✺
16.03.25	RC Villalbes - Gran Peña	0:0 ✺
23.02.25	Gran Peña - Sarriana	1:3 ✺
16.02.25	Alondras - Gran Peña	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LWTLT
- UD Ourense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
30.03.25	UD Ourense - Somozas	0:0 ✺
23.03.25	Boiro - UD Ourense	0:1 ✺
15.03.25	UD Ourense - Villalonga	2:0 ✺
01.03.25	UD Ourense - Arosa	2:0 ✺
23.02.25	Atlético Arteixo - UD Ourense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
24.11.24	UD Ourense - Gran Peña	2:0
09.06.24	Gran Peña - UD Ourense	2:1
02.06.24	UD Ourense - Gran Peña	3:3
24.02.24	UD Ourense - Gran Peña	0:2
08.10.23	Gran Peña - UD Ourense	1:1
Club Friendly
19.08.23	Gran Peña - UD Ourense	5:1
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
29.01.23	Gran Peña - UD Ourense	1:0

Upcoming Matches