Match Info

Virsliga - Round 33

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Grobiņas pilsētas stadions (Grobina) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Latvia	14:00	Sportacentrs TV, TV4, Virsliga Plus


	Grobiņa		Ogre United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.83	3.40	3.50
	1.88	3.45	3.55	Watch
	1.95	3.78	3.83
	1.8	3.77	4.04	Watch
	1.9	3.7	3.5
	1.97	3.62	3.52	Watch
	1.89	3.5	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.84)	3.6 ↑ (3.53)	3.63 ↑ (3.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grobiņa
48.9%

Draw
25.6%

Ogre United
25.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

49.3%

25.7%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

23.9%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grobiņa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Ogre United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grobiņa than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ogre United than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Grobiņa - Ogre United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Ozols R. (G) 11. Rascevskis O. 15. Jovanovic A. 3. Druzinins D. (C) 27. Baravykas R. 14. Sidorovs M. 8. Olatunde-Matthew O. 87. Ribeiro J. 77. Dodo 20. Yamada H. 6. Corryn M.	1. Parfjonovs N. (G) 5. Sibass R. 13. Gulbis K. (C) 55. Kudelkins A. 27. Molotkovs A. 7. Pulis I. 19. Cudars K. 30. Doroshenko A. 10. Kalnins M. 22. Estevez Fernandez L. 9. Fokam J.
Substitutes
13. Aruna A. 80. Baydal A. 32. Kluskins G. 1. Kudrjavcevs V. (G) 5. Leitans G. 99. Puzirevskis A. 2. Rupeiks K.	20. Biscuhis K. (G) 91. Grinbergs J. 21. Ivulans M. 71. Marchuk A. 17. Mashchenko V. 8. Mickevics T. 11. Pacepko M. 6. Vejkrigers D. 2. Ziemelis R.
Coaches
Klava O.	Mazurs V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', Fokam J. ↓, Ivulans M. ↑,
18', 1 - 0, Druzinins D. ⚽, Corryn M. (A),
45', Druzinins D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Doroshenko A. ↓, Mickevics T. ↑,
56', Rascevskis O. ↓, Rupeiks K. ↑,
61', 2 - 0, Dodo ⚽, Corryn M. (A),
64', Ivulans M. ↓, Pacepko M. ↑,
64', Pulis I. ↓, Marchuk A. ↑,
70', 2 - 1, Cudars K. (Penalty Awarded),
71', 3 - 1, Yamada H. ⚽, Corryn M. (A),
75', Molotkovs A. ↓, Mashchenko V. ↑,
81', Yamada H. ↓, Kluskins G. ↑,
86', 3 - 2, Kalnins M. ⚽, Sibass R. (A),
87', Olatunde-Matthew O. ↓, Puzirevskis A. ↑,
90', Sibass R. 🟨,

Preview

In recent outings, Grobiņa has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Ogre United has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

In this matchup, Grobiņa is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Grobiņa has recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:4 (averaging 1.3:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Grobiņa against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 2:2 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Grobina	34	6	11	17	27:61	-34	29
10	Ogre United ✔	34	4	6	24	34:85	-51	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grobiņas SC
Latvian Virsliga
10.10.26	Super Nova - Grobiņa	2:1 ✺
20.09.26	Tukums 2000 - Grobiņa	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Grobiņa - Jelgava	0:0 ✺
06.09.26	Auda Riga - Grobiņa	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Grobiņa - BFC Daugavpils	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LTTLW
- Ogre United
Latvian Virsliga
11.10.26	Ogre United - BFC Daugavpils	1:2 ✺
20.09.26	Ogre United - Super Nova	1:0 ✺
16.09.26	Auda Riga - Ogre United	1:0 ✺
11.09.26	Ogre United - Liepāja	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	Tukums 2000 - Ogre United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
27.07.26	Grobiņa - Ogre United	2:2
25.05.26	Ogre United - Grobiņa	1:1
13.04.26	Ogre United - Grobiņa	1:1

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