Match Info

Virsliga - Round 22

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Grobiņas pilsētas stadions (Grobina)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, TV4, Virsliga Plus
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Grobiņa		Tukums 2000

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.00	3.25	3.20
	2.22	3.25	2.98	Watch
	2.14	3.47	3.28
	2.15	3.52	3.08	Watch
	2.14	3.4	2.9
	2.14	3.28	3.03	Watch
	2.14	3.25	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.48)	3.35 ↑ (3.28)	3.05 ↑ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grobiņa
42.8%

Draw
27.3%

Tukums 2000
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.5%

27.6%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

26.6%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grobiņa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Grobiņa's performance.

Tukums 2000 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tukums 2000 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grobiņa than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tukums 2000 than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	28.6%	28.6%

Grobiņa - Tukums 2000 Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Grobiņa will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Tukums 2000 will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Ozols R. (G) 2. Rupeiks K. 3. Druzinins D. (C) 8. Olatunde-Matthew O. 6. Corryn M. 87. Ribeiro J. 11. Rascevskis O. 14. Sidorovs M. 29. Matyushenko I. 10. Dobrecovs D. 77. Dodo	97. Baturins I. (G) 28. Melkis R. 6. Volkovs K. 25. Joksts H. 30. Susts M. 17. Derkach M. 10. Samoilovs B. (C) 4. Anmanis Kaspars 7. Shibata S. 11. Leoni 27. Deruzinskis R.
Substitutes
13. Aruna A. 23. Fjodorovs M. 9. Kholod A. 32. Kluskins G. 7. Krautmanis J. 1. Kudrjavcevs V. (G) 33. Laizans T. (G) 25. Sirbu D. 20. Yamada H.	14. Calbergs D. 18. Dusalijevs N. 16. Klavins K. 24. Matsubara T. 19. Radzenieks D. 88. Stals M. 5. Toba J. 21. Valmiers D.
Coaches
Klava O.	Dislers K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
16', Olatunde-Matthew O. 🟨,
18', 1 - 0, Ribeiro J. ⚽, Dobrecovs D. (A),
29', Susts M. 🟨,
38', 2 - 0, Sidorovs M. ⚽, Dodo (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Deruzinskis R. ↓, Radzenieks D. ↑,
46', Susts M. ↓, Dusalijevs N. ↑,
60', 3 - 0, Dobrecovs D. ⚽,
71', Joksts H. ↓, Klavins K. ↑,
71', Melkis R. ↓, Stals M. ↑,
75', Corryn M. ↓, Kluskins G. ↑,
79', 3 - 1, Samoilovs B. ⚽,
80', Matyushenko I. ↓, Aruna A. ↑,
80', Dobrecovs D. ↓, Yamada H. ↑,
81', Leoni ↓, Matsubara T. ↑,
86', Stals M. 🟨,
90+1', Druzinins D. 🟨,
90+2', Rupeiks K. 🟨,
90+4', Sidorovs M. ↓, Sirbu D. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 9 in the zone Virsliga (Relegation) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grobiņa won 2.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Grobiņa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Grobiņa could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Grobiņa won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 13:39. (average 0.9:2.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Grobiņa won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:14. (average 1.3:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Grobina	31	5	11	15	21:52	-31	26
9	Tukums 2000	31	5	9	17	44:61	-17	24

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grobiņas SC
Latvian Virsliga
29.06.26	Jelgava - Grobiņa	2:0 ✺
25.06.26	Grobiņa - Auda Riga	0:0 ✺
20.06.26	BFC Daugavpils - Grobiņa	1:0 ✺
16.06.26	Grobiņa - Liepāja	1:0 ✺
13.06.26	Grobiņa - RFS	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LTLWL
- Tukums 2000
Latvian Virsliga
01.07.26	Tukums 2000 - Super Nova	1:2 ✺
26.06.26	Ogre United - Tukums 2000	3:2 ✺
21.06.26	Jelgava - Tukums 2000	4:1 ✺
17.06.26	Tukums 2000 - Auda Riga	2:1 ✺
12.06.26	Tukums 2000 - BFC Daugavpils	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
15.05.26	Grobiņa - Tukums 2000	3:3
05.04.26	Tukums 2000 - Grobiņa	1:1
04.10.25	Grobiņa - Tukums 2000	1:0
21.07.25	Tukums 2000 - Grobiņa	2:1
21.05.25	Grobiņa - Tukums 2000	2:0
05.04.25	Tukums 2000 - Grobiņa	2:0
28.09.24	Grobiņa - Tukums 2000	1:2

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