Match Info

Virsliga - Round 19

Date: 21 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs (Jelgava)

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Sportacentrs TV, TV4, Virsliga Plus


	Jelgava		Tukums 2000

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.37	3.25	2.50
	2.25	3.30	2.75	Watch
	2.56	3.56	2.63
	2.38	3.5	2.76	Watch
	2.45	3.25	2.50
	2.54	3.55	2.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.17)	3.4 ↓ (3.47)	2.61 ↓ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jelgava
37.9%

Draw
27%

Tukums 2000
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

26.4%

31.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

25.3%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jelgava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Tukums 2000 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jelgava than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jelgava, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tukums 2000 than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Jelgava - Tukums 2000 Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Jelgava will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dvorak A. (G) 19. Petersons A. (C) 13. Novikovs J. 4. Kangars A. 3. Semesko M. 22. Pudil M. 9. Becers R. 29. Zaleiko G. 8. Melkis R. 18. Smaukstelis E. 20. Patika G.	97. Baturins I. (G) 28. Melkis R. 30. Susts M. 6. Volkovs K. 46. Enyou A. 17. Derkach M. 10. Samoilovs B. (C) 4. Anmanis Kaspars 7. Shibata S. 27. Deruzinskis R. 19. Oloko E.
Substitutes
28. Deklavs A. 23. Dreimanis A. 24. Hasek F. 11. Hasek M. 10. Holoubek D. 7. Janovskis A. 21. Kacanovs G. 16. Leitis T. (G) 5. Smirnovs I.	22. Baumanis R. 18. Calbergs D. 25. Joksts H. 16. Klavins K. 11. Leoni 35. Minajevs K. (G) 8. Reingolcs R. 88. Stals M. 5. Toba J.
Coaches
Basovs A.	Dislers K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Zaleiko G. 🟨,
34', 1 - 0, Semesko M. ⚽, Pudil M. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Enyou A. ↓, Joksts H. ↑,
46', Susts M. ↓, Stals M. ↑,
54', Volkovs K. 🟥,
58', 2 - 0, Pudil M. ⚽, Smaukstelis E. (A),
59', Deruzinskis R. ↓, Leoni ↑,
59', Samoilovs B. ↓, Reingolcs R. ↑,
65', 3 - 0, Petersons A. ⚽, Smaukstelis E. (A),
67', Smaukstelis E. ↓, Holoubek D. ↑,
67', Patika G. ↓, Hasek M. ↑,
70', 4 - 0, Melkis R. ⚽,
78', Petersons A. ↓, Smirnovs I. ↑,
78', Zaleiko G. ↓, Deklavs A. ↑,
83', Melkis R. 🟨,
84', Melkis R. ↓, Klavins K. ↑,
86', Melkis R. ↓, Dreimanis A. ↑,
87', 4 - 1, Oloko E. ⚽, Klavins K. (A),

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 9 in the zone Virsliga (Relegation) and 7)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jelgava won 1.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Jelgava won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:24. (average 1.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Jelgava won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:9. (average 1.6:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Jelgava	32	8	8	16	34:53	-19	32
9	Tukums 2000	32	5	9	18	44:63	-19	24

Last Results with these Odds

Tukums 2000 - the odds 2.91 are the expected chance of winning is 31.47%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FS Jelgava
Latvian Virsliga
17.06.26	Jelgava - Ogre United	0:2 ✺
13.06.26	Auda Riga - Jelgava	1:1 ✺
31.05.26	Jelgava - BFC Daugavpils	1:1 ✺
26.05.26	Jelgava - Liepāja	1:1 ✺
21.05.26	RFS - Jelgava	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LTTTL
- Tukums 2000
Latvian Virsliga
17.06.26	Tukums 2000 - Auda Riga	2:1 ✺
12.06.26	Tukums 2000 - BFC Daugavpils	1:1 ✺
30.05.26	Liepāja - Tukums 2000	3:0 ✺
25.05.26	RFS - Tukums 2000	3:1 ✺
20.05.26	Tukums 2000 - Riga	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
01.05.26	Tukums 2000 - Jelgava	5:0
08.03.26	Jelgava - Tukums 2000	2:1
09.11.25	Tukums 2000 - Jelgava	1:1
23.08.25	Jelgava - Tukums 2000	1:1
17.06.25	Tukums 2000 - Jelgava	1:1
23.04.25	Jelgava - Tukums 2000	2:1
15.09.24	Tukums 2000 - Jelgava	3:3

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