Match Info

JAPAN: J3 League - Round 22

Date: 21 July 2024, Sunday

Location: Kitakami Stadium (Kitakami)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Grulla Morioka		Kataller Toyama

	1	X	2
	4	3.2	1.77
	4.2	3.3	1.8	Watch
	4.46	3.5	1.79
	4.47	3.33	1.77	Watch
	3.9	3.3	1.75
	4.17	3.35	1.79	Watch
	4	3.3	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.17 ↓ (5.7)	3.33 ↓ (4.2)	1.79 ↑ (1.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grulla Morioka
21.8%

Draw
27.3%

Kataller Toyama
50.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.9%

21.6%

62.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.6%

21.2%

63.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grulla Morioka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Grulla Morioka's performance.

Kataller Toyama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kataller Toyama might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grulla Morioka than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Grulla Morioka that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kataller Toyama than the current prediction. (+12.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kataller Toyama could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	14.3%	71.4%

Grulla Morioka - Kataller Toyama Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Grulla Morioka will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Kataller Toyama will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Okubo T. (G) 18. Miyaichi T. 25. Yamato Y. 51. Fukatsu K. 6. Takahashi S. 4. Fukagawa D. 17. Niizato R. 23. Toyoda K. 15. Kagami T. 9. Tokura K. 10. Otabor K.	1. Tagawa T. (G) 23. Nishiya S. 26. Nabeta A. 4. Kamiyama K. 25. Yasumitsu S. 24. Kawai Y. 16. Sueki H. 22. Shiina N. 33. Takahashi Y. 27. Yoshihira T. 9. Usui S.
Substitutes
30. Adachi S. 7. Fukahori S. 21. Inaba A. (G) 88. Kim Jae-Young 11. Kiri S. 13. Kogure D. 3. Saito R.	48. Arai Y. 28. Fuseya S. 19. Inoue N. 11. Matsumoto K. 31. Saito K. (G) 17. Tsubokawa H. 2. Wakimoto K.
Coaches
Jinno T.	Otagiri M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Yoshihira T. (Pen),
38', Fukatsu K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Toyoda K. ↓, Adachi S. ↑,
60', Usui S. ↓, Matsumoto K. ↑,
60', Yoshihira T. ↓, Inoue N. ↑,
60', Shiina N. ↓, Fuseya S. ↑,
60', Tokura K. ↓, Fukahori S. ↑,
70', Kagami T. ↓, Kiri S. ↑,
70', Fukatsu K. ↓, Saito R. ↑,
83', Otabor K. 🟨,
84', Miyaichi T. ↓, Kogure D. ↑,
90', Takahashi Y. ↓, Arai Y. ↑,
90+4', Kawai Y. ↓, Tsubokawa H. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 20 and 6).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Grulla Morioka won 2.

Grulla Morioka is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Kataller Toyama is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Kataller Toyama is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Grulla Morioka won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Grulla Morioka won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grulla Morioka
Japan J3 League
13.07.24	Nagano Parceiro - Grulla Morioka	0:0 ✺
06.07.24	Grulla Morioka - Sagamihara	0:1 ✺
29.06.24	Omiya Ardija - Grulla Morioka	2:0 ✺
26.06.24	Kataller Toyama - Grulla Morioka	3:0 ✺
22.06.24	Grulla Morioka - Imabari	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TLLLT
- Kataller Toyama
Japan J3 League
13.07.24	Kataller Toyama - Ryūkyū	3:0 ✺
06.07.24	Osaka - Kataller Toyama	0:0 ✺
29.06.24	Kataller Toyama - Sagamihara	0:0 ✺
26.06.24	Kataller Toyama - Grulla Morioka	3:0 ✺
22.06.24	Nagano Parceiro - Kataller Toyama	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
26.06.24	Kataller Toyama - Grulla Morioka	3:0
26.08.23	Kataller Toyama - Grulla Morioka	0:2
17.06.23	Grulla Morioka - Kataller Toyama	1:2
27.11.21	Grulla Morioka - Kataller Toyama	1:0
03.07.21	Kataller Toyama - Grulla Morioka	1:0
18.10.20	Kataller Toyama - Grulla Morioka	0:1
19.07.20	Grulla Morioka - Kataller Toyama	1:4

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