Match Info

Serie A - Round 31

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Arena do Grêmio (Porto Alegre) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Vitor Gobi J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	16:00	Globoplay, Premiere, TV Globo
Ecuador	14:00	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Usa	15:00	Fanatiz


	Grêmio		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
	3.30	3.60	2.05	Watch
	3.30	3.60	2.10
	3.15	3.50	2.12	Watch
	3.26	3.96	2.18
	3.14	3.6	2.22	Watch
	3.20	3.90	2.10
	3.35	3.65	2.13	Watch
	3.25	3.55	2.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.24 ↑ (2.93)	3.67 ↑ (3.59)	2.12 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.75

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Grêmio
29.3%

Draw
25.9%

Cruzeiro
44.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.5%

26.5%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32%

26.1%

41.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	60%	40%

Grêmio - Cruzeiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Cruzeiro will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Weverton (G) 27. Diego Caito 6. Gustavo Martins 4. Walter Kannemann (C) 23. Marlon 20. Villasanti M. 15. Danilo Barbosa 7. Pavon C. 10. Krovinovic F. 9. Amuzu F. 95. Carlos Vinicius	81. Otavio Costa (G) 12. William Furtado 43. Joao Marcelo 34. Jonathan Jesus 25. Villalba L. 5. Ze Lucas 29. Romero L. (C) 99. Arroyo K. 10. Matheus Pereira 8. Gerson 19. Kaio Jorge
Substitutes
22. Braithwaite M. 38. Caio Paulista 17. Dodi 99. Enamorado J. 2. Fabian Balbuena 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 18. Joao Pedro 14. Marcos Rocha 8. Noriega E. 54. Pedro Gabriel 11. Tete 3. Wagner Leonardo	9. Bruno Rodrigues 1. Cassio (G) 15. Fabricio Bruno 23. Fagner 2. Kaua Moraes 16. Lucas Silva 11. Marquinhos 7. Matheus Henrique 97. Rodriguez L. 27. Rojas G. 6. Vina M. 20. Wesley
Coaches
Renato Gaucho	Artur Jorge

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
17', 1 - 0, Carlos Vinicius (Penalty Awarded),
23', 1 - 1, Kaio Jorge ⚽, Matheus Pereira (A),
36', Danilo Barbosa ↓, Noriega E. ↑,
41', 2 - 1, Pavon C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
48', 2 - 2, Kaio Jorge ⚽, Matheus Pereira (A),
61', 2 - 3, Kaio Jorge ⚽, William Furtado (A),
66', Krovinovic F. ↓, Braithwaite M. ↑,
66', Ze Lucas ↓, Matheus Henrique ↑,
67', Joao Marcelo 🟨,
71', Matheus Pereira 🟨,
73', Walter Kannemann 🟨,
73', Walter Kannemann 🟥,
76', Arroyo K. 🟨,
79', Arroyo K. ↓, Wesley ↑,
80', 2 - 4, Joao Marcelo ⚽, Gerson (A),
90', Pavon C. ↓, Tete ↑,
90', Amuzu F. ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
90+2', Gerson ↓, Bruno Rodrigues ↑,
90+2', Joao Marcelo ↓, Fabricio Bruno ↑,
90+2', Kaio Jorge ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,

Preview

A high-stakes clash as a relegation-threatened team welcomes an elite contender (ranked 18th in the Relegation - Serie B and 7th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Grêmio won 0.

Grêmio is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Cruzeiro has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Grêmio: Cabral J. (Inactive) Wallace (Yellow Cards).

Confirmed absences for Cruzeiro: Felipe Morais (Yellow Cards) Gabriel Pec (Broken Leg) Romero L. (Injury) Sinisterra L. (Muscle Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Grêmio: Matheus Nascimento (Inactive).

Doubtful / questionable for Cruzeiro: Villarreal N. (Ankle Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Grêmio has recorded 6 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:25 (averaging 1:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Grêmio against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with 11:11 goals (averaging 1.1:1.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Cruzeiro	32	16	6	10	51:46	5	54
17	Gremio	32	8	10	14	35:44	-9	34

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Cruzeiro: 0.16%

Last Results with these Odds

Cruzeiro - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 41.02%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie A
11.10.26	Grêmio - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
07.10.26	Remo - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Grêmio - Palmeiras	0:0 ✺
16.09.26	Botafogo RJ - Grêmio	3:2 ✺
12.09.26	Grêmio - Vasco da Gama	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTTLL
- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
12.10.26	Red Bull Bragantino - Cruzeiro	4:2 ✺
07.10.26	Cruzeiro - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
20.09.26	Vitória Salvador - Cruzeiro	1:3 ✺
12.09.26	Santos - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Cruzeiro - Athletico Paranaense	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
12.07.26	Grêmio - Cruzeiro	1:3
Brazilian Serie A
18.04.26	Cruzeiro - Grêmio	2:0
05.11.25	Grêmio - Cruzeiro	0:1
13.07.25	Cruzeiro - Grêmio	4:1
27.11.24	Cruzeiro - Grêmio	1:1
10.07.24	Grêmio - Cruzeiro	0:2
27.08.23	Grêmio - Cruzeiro	3:0

Upcoming Matches