Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 20

Date: 10 August 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio Novelli Júnior (Itu)

Referee: Policarpo Bento A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	BandSports, Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
World	Amazon Prime Video


	Ituano		Chapecoense

	1	X	2
	2.75	3	2.7	Watch
	2.7	2.9	2.6
	2.75	3	2.7
	2.83	3.01	2.84
	2.82	2.89	2.74	Watch
	2.7	3	2.62
	2.75	3.04	2.66	Watch
	2.75	3	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.5)	2.98 ↑ (2.95)	2.7 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ituano
33.9%

Draw
31.4%

Chapecoense
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

30.2%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

29.4%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ituano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Chapecoense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	77.8%	0%

Ituano - Chapecoense Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Ituano will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 50.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Jefferson Paulino (G) 2. Marcinho 3. Claudinho (C) 4. Guilherme Mariano 6. Richard 5. Rodrigo 8. Miqueias 10. Jose Aldo 11. Bruno Xavier 9. Thonny Anderson 7. Neto Berola	26. Matheus Cavichioli (G) 98. Mailton 33. Bruno Leonardo (C) 3. Eduardo Doma 32. Jhonnathan 35. Foguinho 31. Tarik 79. Marcelinho 10. Giovanni Augusto 7. Marcinho 89. Mario Sergio
Substitutes
16. Aluisio 18. de Almeida J. V. X. 15. Erik 23. Gabriel Falcao 19. Jonathan 13. Leo Oliveira 17. Leozinho 14. Poz V. 21. Ruan Carlos 1. Saulo (G) 22. Victor Silva 20. Yann Rolim	5. Auremir 81. Daniel Cruz 76. Felipe Vieira 1. Gabriel Gasparotto (G) 4. Joao Paulo 8. Marlone 9. Pedro Perotti 99. Rafael Carvalheira 30. Thomas Bedinelli
Coaches
Alberto Valentim	Tcheco

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Marcinho ⚽,
15', Matheus Cavichioli ↓, Gabriel Gasparotto ↑,
21', Neto Berola 🟨,
32', Bruno Leonardo 🟨,
43', 1 - 1, Thonny Anderson ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Miqueias ↓, Yann Rolim ↑,
50', Jose Aldo 🟨,
61', Bruno Leonardo 🟥,
61', Neto Berola ↓, Leozinho ↑,
64', Giovanni Augusto ↓, Marlone ↑,
67', Rodrigo ↓, Jonathan ↑,
72', 2 - 1, Bruno Xavier ⚽, Thonny Anderson (A),
73', Mailton ↓, Daniel Cruz ↑,
74', Marcinho ↓, Rafael Carvalheira ↑,
74', Tarik ↓, Joao Paulo ↑,
82', Jose Aldo ↓, de Almeida J. V. X. ↑,
82', Bruno Xavier ↓, Gabriel Falcao ↑,
86', Matheus Cavichioli 🟨,
90+2', Jhonnathan 🟨,
90+4', Tcheco 🟨,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Chapecoense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Ituano: Guilherme Lazaroni (Red Card) Lipe (Injury) Madison (Injury) Pablo (Injury) Vinicius Paiva (Red Card) Ze Carlos (Injury)

There will not play in Chapecoense: Romulo (Injury) Ronaldo Mendes (Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ituano won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Ituano won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ituano
Brazilian Serie B
03.08.24	Amazonas - Ituano	1:0 ✺
26.07.24	Ituano - Vila Nova	0:0 ✺
23.07.24	Ituano - América Mineiro	0:0 ✺
20.07.24	CRB Maceio - Ituano	1:0 ✺
15.07.24	Santos - Ituano	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LTTLL
- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie B
05.08.24	Chapecoense - Mirassol	0:1 ✺
27.07.24	Coritiba - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
23.07.24	Chapecoense - Sport Recife	1:1 ✺
18.07.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
14.07.24	Chapecoense - Brusque	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
20.04.24	Chapecoense - Ituano	3:1
17.11.23	Ituano - Chapecoense	0:0
18.07.23	Chapecoense - Ituano	1:0
23.07.22	Ituano - Chapecoense	1:0
09.04.22	Chapecoense - Ituano	1:1

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