The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Ituano 30.5%
Draw 30.2%
Vila Nova 39.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
19%
25.4%
55.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
18.4%
24.6%
57.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ituano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ituano's performance.
Vila Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.3%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Vila Nova might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (-12.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ituano that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (+18%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vila Nova could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
23.1%
23.1%
53.8%
Ituano - Vila Nova Predictions
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Ituano will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Vila Nova will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Confidence interval (95%) for Vila Nova: 26.7% – 80.9%.
26. Denis Junior (G) 2. Elias 3. Juan Quintero 23. Marcondes 6. Rhuan 8. Ralf (C) 5. Cristiano 18. Arilson 70. Juan Christian 19. Henrique Almeida 11. Alesson
Substitutes
15. Aluisio 17. Bruno Xavier 23. de Almeida J. V. X. 18. Gabriel Falcao 16. Izidoro 19. Jonathan 13. Leo Oliveira 20. Neto Berola 22. Rocha M. 21. Ruan Carlos 14. Walber 12. Wesley Borges (G)
22. Apodi 7. Emerson Urso 17. Everton 13. Guilherme Lacerda 30. Halls (G) 27. Igor Henrique 20. Joao Lucas 15. Joao Victor 29. Junior Todinho 10. Luciano Naninho 21. Silva A.
Coaches
Alberto Valentim
Luizinho Lopes
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Arilson ↓, Joao Victor ↑,
29', Miqueias 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Marcondes ↓, Luciano Naninho ↑,
58', Leozinho ↓, dos Santos Camargo J. ↑,
58', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Neto Berola ↑,
62', Claudinho ↓, Walber ↑,
65', Juan Christian ↓, Emerson Urso ↑,
65', Henrique Almeida ↓, Junior Todinho ↑,
72', Neto Berola 🟨,
74', Rhuan ↓, Silva A. ↑,
79', Vinicius Poz ↓, Leo Oliveira ↑,
79', Ze Eduardo ↓, Bruno Xavier ↑,
84', Emerson Urso 🟨,
87', Walber 🟨,
90+8', Jose Aldo 🟨,
Preview
An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Ituano won 1.
Ituano is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Recent matches Vila Nova is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Vila Nova could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.
There will not play in Ituano: Lipe
(Injury)
Madison
(Injury)
Pablo
(Injury)
Richard
(Red Card)
Ze Carlos
(Injury)
There will not play in Vila Nova: Igor Henrique
(Injury)
Last 6 head-to-head matches Ituano won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 7-7.
Including matches at home between the teams Ituano won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-4.
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Silva A. 
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