Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 9

Date: 25 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi (Novo Horizonte)

Referee: Santos Sa Junior F. A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Grêmio Novorizontino		Paysandu

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.8	6.5	Watch
	1.56	3.7	6.4
	1.58	3.75	6.92
	1.58	3.57	6.51	Watch
	1.57	3.6	6
	1.58	3.72	6.28	Watch
	1.56	3.7	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.6)	3.69 ↑ (3.57)	6.43 ↑ (5.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Grêmio Novorizontino
59.9%

Draw
25.5%

Paysandu
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.2%

26.1%

15.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

25%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Grêmio Novorizontino - Paysandu Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Novorizontino (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Grêmio Novorizontino will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Airton (G) 2. Rodrigo Soares 26. Dantas 4. Patrick 5. Jean Irmer 8. Willian Farias (C) 28. Marlon 47. Fabio Matheus 7. Pablo Dyego 99. Nathan Fogaca 10. Matheus Frizzo	13. Matheus Nogueira (G) 15. Dudu Vieira 3. Quintana Y. 35. Mauricio Antonio 94. Patric Calmon 28. Leandro Vilela 8. Andre Lima 96. Matheus Vargas 77. Rossi 11. Nicolas (C) 24. Borasi B.
Substitutes
17. Bruno Jose 14. Gabriel Correia 31. Igor Formiga 93. Jordi (G) 9. Lucca 6. Luis Oyama 88. Patrick Brey 18. Pedro Balotelli 22. Ruiz O. 15. Tavinho 30. Waguininho	9. Benitez J. 32. Cavalleri M. 22. Eliel 12. Gabriel Mesquita (G) 4. Luan Freitas 34. Lucca Carvalho 30. Marcelinho 16. Reverson
Coaches
Umberto Louzer	Luizinho Lopes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Andre Lima ⚽,
16', Leandro Vilela 🟨,
27', 1 - 1, Nathan Fogaca ⚽, Marlon (A),
41', Matheus Vargas 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Willian Farias ↓, Luis Oyama ↑,
51', Dantas 🟨,
53', Dudu Vieira ↓, Reverson ↑,
59', Pablo Dyego ↓, Waguininho ↑,
59', Matheus Frizzo ↓, Ruiz O. ↑,
60', 2 - 1, Nathan Fogaca ⚽,
65', Leandro Vilela ↓, Luan Freitas ↑,
65', Borasi B. ↓, Marcelinho ↑,
74', Nicolas ↓, Benitez J. ↑,
82', 3 - 1, Nathan Fogaca ⚽,
85', Marlon ↓, Bruno Jose ↑,
85', Rodrigo Soares ↓, Igor Formiga ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

Novorizontino is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Paysandu has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Novorizontino may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Novorizontino is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Novorizontino: Airton (Inactive) Cesar Martins (Injury) Leo Tocantins (Inactive) Renato Palm (Inactive) Robson (Injury) Vitinho (Inactive)

There will not play in Paysandu: Borasi B. (Thigh Injury) Delvalle P. (Ankle Injury) Dudu Vieira (Ankle Injury) Edinho (Injury) Kevyn (Knee Injury) Novillo J. (Injury) Ramon Martinez (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Paysandu: Edilson (Injury) Marlon Douglas (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Including home match between the teams, Novorizontino won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Grêmio Novorizontino
Copa do Brasil
21.05.25	Corinthians - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
17.05.25	Athletic Club - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:2 ✺
11.05.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ferroviária	2:2 ✺
04.05.25	Atlético Goianiense - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
30.04.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LWTLL
- Paysandu PA
Copa do Brasil
21.05.25	Bahia - Paysandu	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
18.05.25	Paysandu - Goiás	0:0 ✺
14.05.25	América Mineiro - Paysandu	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paraense
11.05.25	Remo - Paysandu	1:1 penalties ✺
07.05.25	Paysandu - Remo	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
16.11.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Paysandu	1:1
29.07.24	Paysandu - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:3

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