Match Info

ECUADOR: LIGA PRO - SECOND STAGE - ROUND 25

Date: 22 October 2023, Sunday


	Gualaceo		SD Aucas

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.1	2.25	Watch
	3	3	2.2	Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.25	Watch
	3.26	3.24	2.33
	3.26	3.24	2.33
	3.1	3.2	2.15
	3.24	3.3	2.17	Watch
	3.15	3.1	2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.15 ↓ (3.26)	3.17 ↓ (3.22)	2.24 ↑ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gualaceo
29.4%

Draw
29.2%

SD Aucas
41.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

28.5%

43.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

27.7%

44.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gualaceo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

SD Aucas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gualaceo than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	18.2%	81.8%

Gualaceo - SD Aucas Predictions

Users Predictions: SD Aucas will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Hinostroza W. (C) 23. Mesa Mercado E. E. 3. Ontaneda J. 12. Rodriguez Y. 62. Torres B. 18. Gongora J. 21. Morocho R. 7. Patta Quintero H. L. 5. Verges J. 10. Preciado J. 16. Ovando D.	26. Lara J. (G) 19. Candelo Y. 33. Canga L. 16. Rolon C. 29. Cuero Q. C. A. 7. Vega E. 28. Quinonez Ruiz J. R. (C) 22. Cano L. 23. Romulo Otero 11. Castillo E. 9. Medina J.
Substitutes
99. Angulo V. 80. Branda J. 11. Carrion J. 22. Donsanti T. 26. Enriquez D. 34. Eras Quilambaqui T. A. (G) 45. Medina J. 33. Mercado H. 20. Quinonez H. 9. Villalba D.	4. Angel W. 14. Briones R. 13. Caicedo E. 38. Cifuentes J. 35. Corozo D. 2. Garcia A. 8. Mina A. 10. Montero J. 17. Ordonez Ayovi R. J. 99. Perlaza R. 27. Romero L.
Coaches
Frias F.	Escobar Saldarriaga S.

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 and 10).

Gualaceo is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Aucas is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Aucas could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Aucas will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Gualaceo won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 1-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Gualaceo won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gualaceo SC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
08.10.23	Independiente del Valle - Gualaceo	2:0 ✺
29.09.23	Gualaceo - Deportivo Cuenca	1:1 ✺
23.09.23	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Gualaceo	0:0 ✺
18.09.23	Gualaceo - Cumbayá	0:3 ✺
03.09.23	Técnico Universitario - Gualaceo	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LTTLL
- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
07.10.23	SD Aucas - Barcelona Guayaquil	3:2 ✺
01.10.23	Guayaquil City - SD Aucas	0:1 ✺
24.09.23	Cumbayá - SD Aucas	1:1 ✺
17.09.23	SD Aucas - Técnico Universitario	2:4 ✺
02.09.23	Emelec - SD Aucas	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.05.23	SD Aucas - Gualaceo	1:0
23.10.22	SD Aucas - Gualaceo	3:0
27.05.22	Gualaceo - SD Aucas	1:4

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