Match Info

League One - Round 27

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Guangxi Sports Center (Nanning) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
China	19:30	Migu


	Guangxi Hengchen		Changchun Yatai

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.30	5.00	7.50
	1.34	4.75	7.00	Watch
	1.29	5.66	10.41
	1.4	4.62	7.1	Watch
	1.26	5.35	10.00
	1.33	5.14	8.12
	1.29	5.00	8.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.63)	5.07 ↑ (3.8)	8.3 ↑ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guangxi Hengchen
70.5%

Draw
18.3%

Changchun Yatai
11.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.1%

24.1%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.2%

23.2%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guangxi Hengchen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Guangxi Hengchen's performance.

Changchun Yatai has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Changchun Yatai might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guangxi Hengchen than the current prediction. (-12.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Guangxi Hengchen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Changchun Yatai than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Changchun Yatai could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Guangxi Hengchen - Changchun Yatai Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Liang Kun (G) 32. Li S. 5. Luan H. 6. Chen G. 3. Yuan X. (C) 24. Ji X. 18. Wei Chaolun 44. Liang Yibin 10. Ardazishvili R. 11. Lapoussin L. 36. Mbo N.	23. Wu Yake (G) 4. Wang Weipu 27. Reiner C. 41. Wu Junjie 22. Benhaddouche C. 25. Chen Xuhuang 6. Li Qiang 3. Du Kaile 9. Omoijuanfo O. 29. Tan Long (C) 44. Fan Chao
Substitutes
28. Ablimit Subi 19. Cen Liyi 7. Chen D. 1. Dai Jiatong (G) 21. Dai Ming 42. Ji Tianle 23. Khedrup Lobsang 20. Lu Junhui 16. Ning W. 25. Ren K. 12. Yao-hsing Yu 27. Zhang Zijian	13. Dong Yifan (G) 21. He Xin 35. Jiang Zilei 14. JIng Boxi 39. Liu Ziheng 36. Lu K. 18. Lu Pin 38. Sun Xipeng 32. Tian Ziyi 16. Tudi Dilyimit 8. Wu Zhicheng 37. Zhou Dadi
Coaches
Liu Junwei	Yan Feng

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', Liang Kun 🟥,
9', Ji X. ↓, Dai Jiatong ↑,
34', 0 - 1, Tan Long ⚽, Omoijuanfo O. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Chen Xuhuang ↓, Tudi Dilyimit ↑,
46', Ardazishvili R. ↓, Chen D. ↑,
46', Liang Yibin ↓, Zhang Zijian ↑,
53', 1 - 1, Lapoussin L. ⚽, Yuan X. (A),
56', Wang Weipu ↓, Jiang Zilei ↑,
56', Fan Chao ↓, Zhou Dadi ↑,
57', Tudi Dilyimit 🟨,
60', 1 - 2, Tan Long ⚽, Zhou Dadi (A),
63', Li S. ↓, Ren K. ↑,
66', 2 - 2, Lapoussin L. ⚽, Ren K. (A),
68', Benhaddouche C. ↓, Sun Xipeng ↑,
76', Reiner C. 🟨,
82', Li Qiang ↓, Wu Zhicheng ↑,
83', Luan H. ↓, Ablimit Subi ↑,

Preview

An upper-table contender faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 3rd and 9th).

Guangxi Hengchen is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Changchun Yatai has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

The betting markets point to Guangxi Hengchen as the clear and undisputed favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Guangxi Hengchen has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Guangxi Hengchen	28	13	8	7	45:33	12	47
9	Changchun Yatai	28	11	6	11	45:45	0	35

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guangxi Hengchen
Chinese Jia League
11.10.26	Guangxi Hengchen - Shenzhen Juniors	1:1 ✺
07.10.26	Foshan Nanshi - Guangxi Hengchen	1:0 ✺
25.09.26	Wuxi Wugou - Guangxi Hengchen	0:1 ✺
18.09.26	Nantong Zhiyun - Guangxi Hengchen	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Guangxi Hengchen - Yanbian Longding	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TLWWW
- Changchun Yatai
Chinese Jia League
10.10.26	Dalian Kun City - Changchun Yatai	1:1 ✺
06.10.26	Changchun Yatai - Yanbian Longding	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Nantong Zhiyun - Changchun Yatai	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	Shenzhen Juniors - Changchun Yatai	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Changchun Yatai - Dingnan United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Jia League
27.06.26	Changchun Yatai - Guangxi Hengchen	1:2

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