Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 22 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Arsenio Erico (Asunción)

Referee: Perez R. B. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Colombia	ESPN 2
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	DGO Latin America, ESPN 2 South
Uruguay	DSports 1
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	DSports 1, Inter
World	Disney+


	Guaraní Asuncion		Independiente

	1	X	2
	5	3.5	1.8	Watch
	4.5	3.4	1.8
	4.75	3.4	1.78	Watch
	4.79	3.44	1.82
	4.81	3.44	1.81	Watch
	4.8	3.2	1.75	Watch
	4.95	3.46	1.78	Watch
	4.75	3.4	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.79 ↑ (4.53)	3.41 ↓ (3.49)	1.79 ↑ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guaraní Asuncion
19.7%

Draw
27.7%

Independiente
52.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.7%

26.8%

52.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.3%

26.3%

53.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guaraní Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guaraní Asuncion than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	11.1%	66.7%

Guaraní Asuncion - Independiente Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Guaraní will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Independiente will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Independiente: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Guaraní (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Rodriguez M. (G) 37. Perez D. 5. Lopez M. 14. Vargas G. 20. Maidana A. 7. Manzur A. 36. Martinez L. 26. Fernandez D. 10. Mendieta W. 32. Cantero A. 40. Fernandez F. (C)	33. Rey R. (C) 4. Vera F. 26. Lomonaco K. 36. Valdez S. 77. Angulo A. 5. Loyola F. 23. Marcone I. 10. Cabral L. 27. Tarzia D. 9. Avalos G. 14. Millan L.
Substitutes
11. Barrientos N. 2. Benitez Cabrera A. J. 16. Cespedes V. 38. Coronel P. 30. Gimenez M. (G) 4. Ibarrola W. 8. Maiz A. 24. Patino Martinez J. 35. Pereira A. 21. Pinatares B. 27. Roman Torales F. J. 17. Torales Richard	1. Blazquez J. (G) 31. Bordon G. 8. Galdames P. 34. Gimenez M. 16. Hidalgo S. 18. Maestro I. 11. Mancuello F. 21. Martinez D. 37. Medina K. 20. Rodrigo Fernandez 19. Roman P. 3. Sporle A.
Coaches
Arce F.	Vaccari J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', Mendieta W. ↓, Benitez Cabrera A. J. ↑,
23', Angulo A. 🟨,
26', Tarzia D. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Vargas G. ⚽,
45+1', Benitez Cabrera A. J. 🟨,
45+3', Marcone I. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Millan L. ↓, Rodrigo Fernandez ↑,
46', Vera F. ↓, Galdames P. ↑,
56', Manzur A. 🟨,
60', 1 - 1, Loyola F. ⚽, Angulo A. (A),
66', Fernandez D. ↓, Torales Richard ↑,
66', Maidana A. ↓, Cespedes V. ↑,
72', Avalos G. 🟨,
72', Tarzia D. ↓, Sporle A. ↑,
72', Avalos G. ↓, Maestro I. ↑,
80', 2 - 1, Vargas G. ⚽,
86', Angulo A. ↓, Gimenez M. ↑,
88', Manzur A. ↓, Maiz A. ↑,
88', Fernandez F. 🟨,
88', Fernandez F. ↓, Pinatares B. ↑,
90', Maiz A. 🟨,
90+3', Loyola F. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Guaraní won 1.

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

Independiente could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Independiente is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Guaraní won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 11:11 (average 1:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Guaraní won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:3 (average 1.2:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guaraní Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
19.04.25	Libertad Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:3 ✺
16.04.25	Guaraní Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	0:1 ✺
13.04.25	General Caballero JLM - Guaraní Asuncion	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
10.04.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Potosí	2:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
06.04.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WLTWW
- CA Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional
13.04.25	Independiente - San Martín de San Juan	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.25	Independiente - Boston River	2:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
06.04.25	Lanús - Independiente	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
01.04.25	Nacional Potosí - Independiente	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
29.03.25	Independiente - Godoy Cruz	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
12.10.18	Independiente - Guaraní Asuncion	1:0
27.07.18	Guaraní Asuncion - Independiente	0:0
08.05.18	Independiente - Guaraní Asuncion	2:1
05.03.18	Guaraní Asuncion - Independiente	0:1
14.10.17	Independiente - Guaraní Asuncion	0:1
28.07.17	Guaraní Asuncion - Independiente	3:0
21.05.17	Independiente - Guaraní Asuncion	4:2

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