Match Info

Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Rogelio Livieres (Asunción)

Referee: Ojeda D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Guaraní Asuncion		Olimpia Asuncion

	1	X	2
	3.25	3	2.15	Watch
	3.1	3	2.1
	3.15	3	2.25	Watch
	3.65	2.98	2.3
	3.31	3.06	2.3	Watch
	3	3	2.3
	3.34	2.94	2.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.26 ↑ (2.52)	3 ↓ (3.51)	2.25 ↓ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guaraní Asuncion
28.3%

Draw
30.7%

Olimpia Asuncion
41%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.1%

26.6%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

26.6%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guaraní Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Guaraní Asuncion's form might have worsened.

Olimpia Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guaraní Asuncion than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Guaraní Asuncion, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olimpia Asuncion than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Guaraní Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Servio G. (C) 3. Barbotte A. 2. Segovia I. 4. Zaracho S. 37. Perez D. 5. Tanda P. 29. Llano J. 26. Fernandez D. 7. Manzur A. 10. Rodriguez D. 40. Fernandez F.	1. Olveira G. (G) 27. Caceres R. 14. Vargas G. 15. Gamarra M. 30. Rodriguez Armoa A. F. 26. Sanchez R. 5. Alfaro J. F. 6. Ortiz R. (C) 20. Delmas E. 17. Alcaraz A. 11. Ferreira S.
Substitutes
38. Coronel P. 6. Diaz B. 12. Dionisi G. (G) 13. Dominguez Garcete A. A. 23. Franco E. 8. Lopez M. 34. Maldonado M. 36. Martinez L. 9. Ramirez I. 14. Ramos M. 28. Romero N. 17. Torales R.	37. Benitez R. 7. Cardozo F. 8. Franco Zayas A. F. 29. Leguizamon I. 19. Lezcano R. 23. Perez R. 28. Quintana H. 33. Ramirez L. 9. Sandoval H. 3. Silva A. 22. Vera J. 13. Verza Martinez L. A. (G)
Coaches
Vargas C.	Sanchez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', 0 - 1, Delmas E. ⚽, Sanchez R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Fernandez D. ↓, Torales R. ↑,
46', Manzur A. ↓, Martinez L. ↑,
49', Delmas E. 🟨,
56', Delmas E. ↓, Lezcano R. ↑,
67', Fernandez F. ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
67', Llano J. ↓, Lopez M. ↑,
70', Sanchez R. ↓, Franco Zayas A. F. ↑,
71', Ferreira S. ↓, Sandoval H. ↑,
74', Lopez M. 🟨,
77', Ortiz R. 🟨,
78', Rodriguez D. ↓, Romero N. ↑,
88', 0 - 2, Gamarra M. ⚽,
90+5', Lopez M. 🟥,
90+6', Vargas G. 🟥,
90+6', Benitez R. 🟨,
90+7', Lezcano R. ↓, Perez R. ↑,
90+7', Alcaraz A. ↓, Vera J. ↑,
90+9', Torales R. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guaraní won 4.

Guaraní has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Olimpia is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Guaraní may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Olimpia will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Guaraní won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 28:28. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Guaraní won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:11. (average 1.4:1.2).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Olimpia Asuncion	13	8	2	3	22:10	12	26
6	Guarani	13	5	6	2	14:10	4	21

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guaraní Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
18.03.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	3:1 ✺
15.03.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Guaraní Asuncion	0:0 ✺
07.03.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	0:2 ✺
01.03.26	Nacional Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
26.02.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Juventud de Las Piedras	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WTLTL
- Olimpia Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
17.03.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	1:0 ✺
14.03.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Olimpia Asuncion	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.03.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Olimpia Asuncion	0:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
28.02.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Olimpia Asuncion	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
25.01.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	2:1
26.10.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:3
10.08.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	4:0
06.04.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	2:1
26.01.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	0:1
22.09.24	Guaraní Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	0:0
20.07.24	Olimpia Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1

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