Match Info

Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Martín Torres (Asunción)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports, Tigo Sports+
Usa	Fanatiz


	Sportivo Ameliano		Olimpia Asuncion

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.9	2.55	Watch
	2.62	3	2.62	Watch
	2.74	3.09	2.77
	2.7	3.08	2.71	Watch
	2.7	2.9	2.63
	2.69	3.07	2.69	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↓ (3.04)	3.01 ↓ (3.08)	2.66 ↑ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Ameliano
34.6%

Draw
30.7%

Olimpia Asuncion
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

30.3%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.9%

30.5%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Ameliano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Olimpia Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Ameliano than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olimpia Asuncion than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Sportivo Ameliano - Olimpia Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. It will Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Sportivo Ameliano (2.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sportivo Ameliano (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez M. (G) 21. Franco F. 26. Gonzalez J. (C) 22. Falabella A. 19. Paredes A. 6. Benitez J. 11. Aranda S. 20. Larralde V. 15. Rodriguez W. 10. Vera E. 9. Ocampos C.	1. Olveira G. (C) 21. Olmedo C. 14. Vargas G. 22. Vera J. 16. Chala A. 8. Franco Zayas A. F. 23. Perez R. 3. Silva A. 20. Delmas E. 11. Ferreira S. 19. Lezcano R.
Substitutes
24. Ayala L. 3. Baez F. 5. Benitez H. 34. Benitez M. 30. Cabral R. 40. Contrera A. 8. Moreira E. 13. Peralta R. 35. Sanchez A. (G) 28. Sanguina J. 32. Servian A. 7. Vera F.	17. Alcaraz A. 5. Alfaro J. F. 37. Benitez R. 2. Bentaberry B. 24. Caballero Fleytas T. I. 27. Caceres R. 15. Gamarra M. 25. Lentinelly S. (G) 6. Ortiz R. 28. Quintana H. 30. Rodriguez Armoa A. F. 9. Sandoval H.
Coaches
Nanni R.	Sanchez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Olmedo C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', Benitez J. 🟨,
54', 0 - 1, Lezcano R. ⚽, Franco Zayas A. F. (A),
56', Aranda S. ↓, Vera F. ↑,
60', Silva A. ↓, Alfaro J. F. ↑,
61', Delmas E. ↓, Quintana H. ↑,
67', Rodriguez W. ↓, Moreira E. ↑,
68', Benitez J. ↓, Cabral R. ↑,
68', Chala A. ↓, Gamarra M. ↑,
72', Lezcano R. ↓, Caballero Fleytas T. I. ↑,
72', Ferreira S. ↓, Alcaraz A. ↑,
78', Gamarra M. 🟨,
86', Larralde V. ↓, Sanguina J. ↑,
86', Ocampos C. ↓, Servian A. ↑,
89', Caballero Fleytas T. I. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 5 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Ameliano won 1.

Sportivo Ameliano is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Olimpia is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Olimpia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Sportivo Ameliano won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 20:22. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Sportivo Ameliano won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 1.3:1.2).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Olimpia Asuncion	13	8	2	3	22:10	12	26
7	Ameliano	13	4	6	3	15:15	0	18

Last Results with these Odds

Sportivo Ameliano - the odds 3.04 are the expected chance of winning is 30.73%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Olimpia Asuncion - the odds 2.4 are the expected chance of winning is 38.93%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Ameliano
Paraguayan Primera Division
25.02.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Cerro Porteño	0:1 ✺
19.02.26	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Sportivo Ameliano - 2 de Mayo	3:0 ✺
06.02.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Sportivo Ameliano	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 LTWWW
- Olimpia Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
25.02.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Cerro Porteño - Olimpia Asuncion	0:1 ✺
14.02.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	0:0 ✺
08.02.26	Nacional Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	1:2 ✺
01.02.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
04.10.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	2:1
27.07.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Olimpia Asuncion	1:1
13.04.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	0:0
30.01.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Olimpia Asuncion	2:2
03.11.24	Sportivo Ameliano - Olimpia Asuncion	1:0
25.08.24	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:0
29.04.24	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	0:1

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