Match Info

Serie C - Second stage - Round 5

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Brinco de Ouro (Campinas)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	BandSports, Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, SportyNet+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Guarani		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.2	2.95	2.95
	2.15	2.92	3.35
	2.25	2.96	3.51
	2.90	2.13	3.83	Watch
	2.17	3.1	3.51	Watch
	2.2	3	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2)	2.84 ↓ (3.03)	3.38 ↓ (3.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Guarani
40%

Draw
32.5%

Náutico Capibaribe
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.3%

29.9%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

29.6%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarani has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Guarani's form might have worsened.

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Guarani, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Guarani - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Dalberson (G) 4. Alan Santos (C) 7. Dentinho 10. Diego Torres 6. Emerson 8. Isaque 9. Junior Brandao 5. Kelvi Gomes 2. Lucas Justen 11. Mirandinha 3. Raphael	19. Muriel Becker (C) 2. Arnaldo 80. Bruno Mezenga 33. Carlinhos 11. Helio Borges 70. Igor Bolt 23. Igor Fernandes 40. Joao Maistro 10. Lucas Cardoso 44. Vitinho 22. Wenderson
Substitutes
13. Allyson 25. Andrey Ventura (G) 15. Caio Mello 22. Cicinho 14. David Braz 19. Gabriel Silva 23. Jhemerson 18. Kadi Silva 17. Kaua Jesus 16. Renan Castro 20. Takahashi R. 21. Vitinho	18. Auremir 21. Felipe Redaelli 13. Indio 15. Kayon 12. Kelvin 17. Marcos Ytalo 25. Mateus Silva 34. Otusanya O. 9. Paulo Sergio 26. Raimar 41. Samuel 1. Wellerson R. (G)
Coaches
Matheus Costa	Helio dos Anjos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', Carlinhos 🟨,
9', Lucas Justen 🟨,
45', Emerson 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 0, Dentinho ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lucas Cardoso ↓, Paulo Sergio ↑,
47', Joao Maistro ↓, Mateus Silva ↑,
55', Alan Santos 🟨,
56', 🟨,
60', Junior Brandao ↓, Gabriel Silva ↑,
60', Isaque ↓, Caio Mello ↑,
72', Lucas Justen ↓, Jhemerson ↑,
72', Diego Torres ↓, Cicinho ↑,
72', Helio Borges ↓, Kayon ↑,
74', Alan Santos 🟨,
76', 🟨,
77', 1 - 1, Vitinho ⚽,
80', 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B Superbet and 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guarani won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Guarani is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Guarani won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Guarani won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Serie C
27.09.25	Brusque - Guarani	3:2 ✺
21.09.25	Guarani - Brusque	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Guarani	0:2 ✺
06.09.25	Guarani - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Tombense - Guarani	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 LWWLT
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie C
27.09.25	Ponte Preta - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Guarani	0:2 ✺
07.09.25	Brusque - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Ituano	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
13.09.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Guarani	0:2
26.07.25	Guarani - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1
Brazilian Serie B
13.08.22	Guarani - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
03.05.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Guarani	1:1
04.09.21	Náutico Capibaribe - Guarani	1:1
11.06.21	Guarani - Náutico Capibaribe	1:3

Upcoming Matches