Match Info

Serie C - Second stage - Round 2

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Náutico Capibaribe		Guarani

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.73	3.1	4.4
	1.85	3.05	4.05
	1.78	3.32	4.99
	10.89	6.29	1.21	Watch
	1.89	3.13	4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.63 ↑ (2.07)	3.78 ↑ (3.08)	3.73 ↑ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
34.1%

Draw
32.7%

Guarani
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.9%

29.5%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.4%

28.5%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Náutico Capibaribe's form might have worsened.

Guarani has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Guarani's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Náutico Capibaribe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Guarani, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Náutico Capibaribe - Guarani Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Náutico will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Guarani will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Náutico (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Guarani (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. Muriel Becker (G) 2. Arnaldo 11. Helio Borges 23. Igor Fernandes 5. Igor Pereira 8. Marco Antonio 25. Mateus Silva 34. Otusanya O. 20. Patrick Allan 3. Rayan 7. Vinicius (C)	12. Dalberson (G) 4. Alan Santos (C) 9. Bruno Santos 2. Cicinho 5. David Braz 10. Diego Torres 6. Emerson 8. Isaque 11. Mirandinha 3. Raphael 7. Rian Kelvi
Substitutes
18. Auremir 80. Bruno Mezenga 16. Felipe Santana 70. Igor Bolt 13. Indio 12. Kelvin 17. Marcos Ytalo 26. Raimar 41. Samuel 44. Vitinho 1. Wellerson R. (G) 22. Wenderson	14. Allyson 25. Andrey Ventura (G) 18. Caio Mello 20. Gabriel Silva 17. Jhemerson 22. JP Galvao 19. Junior Brandao 15. Kadi Silva 21. Kaua Jesus 13. Marcio Silva 16. Renan Castro
Coaches
Helio dos Anjos	Matheus Costa

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
22', 0 - 1, Bruno Santos ⚽,
24', 0 - 2, Alan Santos ⚽,
40', Patrick Allan ↓, Vitinho ↑,
45', Raphael 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Lucas Justen ↓, JP Galvao ↑,
46', Igor Pereira ↓, Wenderson ↑,
46', Rayan ↓, Raimar ↑,
47', Arnaldo 🟨,
59', Mirandinha 🟨,
60', Mirandinha ↓, Kaua Jesus ↑,
64', Isaque ↓, Renan Castro ↑,
64', Bruno Santos ↓, Junior Brandao ↑,
72', Mateus Silva ↓, Indio ↑,
73', Diego Torres ↓, Kadi Silva ↑,
74', Marco Antonio ↓, Igor Bolt ↑,
85', Dalberson 🟨,
88', 🟨,

Preview

Náutico has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Guarani is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Náutico is the team to beat.

We predict that Náutico will win today's game, with odds of 1.75.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Náutico won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Náutico Capibaribe - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 43.9%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie C
07.09.25	Brusque - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Ituano	3:0 ✺
24.08.25	São Bernardo - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Anápolis	1:0 ✺
10.08.25	Londrina - Náutico Capibaribe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.9 WWTWW
- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Serie C
06.09.25	Guarani - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
30.08.25	Tombense - Guarani	2:2 ✺
25.08.25	Guarani - Confiança	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	ABC - Guarani	3:4 ✺
09.08.25	Guarani - Ypiranga	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
26.07.25	Guarani - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1
Brazilian Serie B
13.08.22	Guarani - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
03.05.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Guarani	1:1
04.09.21	Náutico Capibaribe - Guarani	1:1
11.06.21	Guarani - Náutico Capibaribe	1:3

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