Match Info

Gaucho - Relegation - Round 6

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Francisco Novelletto Neto (Porto Alegre)


	Monsoon		Guarany de Bagé

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.9	3.3	Watch
	2.25	2.85	3.3
				Watch
	2.21	2.89	3.67
	2.09	3.03	3.82	Watch
	2.1	2.75	3.4
	2.21	3.05	3.47	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.41)	2.91 ↑ (2.73)	3.49 ↑ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Monsoon
42.4%

Draw
31.4%

Guarany de Bagé
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

33.6%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

35.3%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monsoon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Guarany de Bagé has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monsoon than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarany de Bagé than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Monsoon - Guarany de Bagé Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Igor Pavan (G) 2. Camargo 3. Yago Alves 14. Ricardo Thalheimer (C) 6. Para 5. Leo Hanna 8. Vinicius Garcia 7. Matheus Candido 10. Luan Santos 11. Caio Rangel 9. Fabinho Polhao	12. Thiago Goncalves (G) 22. Raphinha 13. Alberte 15. Jean Martim 24. Vitor Oliveira 19. Paulinho Souza 17. Marcao 11. Tony Junior 20. Adailson 7. Marquinhos 9. Lucao
Substitutes
22. Brian Demski 4. Carlos Gabriel 21. Henrique Marcos 12. Marcelo Ribeiro (G) 15. Medina F. 18. Mikael Costa 24. Rena (G) 20. Rick Sena 17. Talyssson Lalau	16. Allan 18. Hiago Lucas 1. Jean Carlos (G) 3. Jean Carlos 23. Joao Vitor (G) 2. Talles 10. Welder
Coaches
Costa A.	Conte G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, Fabinho Polhao ⚽,
39', Jean Martim 🟨,
44', 2 - 0, Caio Rangel ⚽, Luan Santos (A),
45+2', Fabinho Polhao 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Luan Santos ↓, Henrique Marcos ↑,
46', Marcao 🟨,
54', Yago Alves 🟨,
54', Yago Alves ↓, Carlos Gabriel ↑,
57', Henrique Marcos 🟨,
62', Camargo ↓, Medina F. ↑,
68', Jean Martim ↓, Jean Carlos ↑,
68', Adailson ↓, Talles ↑,
75', Paulinho Souza ↓, Allan ↑,
84', Thiago Goncalves ↓, Jean Carlos ↑,
84', Raphinha ↓, Hiago Lucas ↑,
85', Caio Rangel ↓, Rick Sena ↑,

Preview

Monsoon has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Guarany de Bagé is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Guarany de Bagé may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Monsoon might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monsoon won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Monsoon won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Monsoon FC
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
28.02.26	Inter Santa Maria - Monsoon	1:1 ✺
23.02.26	Monsoon - Avenida	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Avenida - Monsoon	1:1 ✺
09.02.26	Monsoon - Inter Santa Maria	1:1 ✺
06.02.26	Guarany de Bagé - Monsoon	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TTTTT
- Guarany de Bagé
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
28.02.26	Guarany de Bagé - Avenida	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
25.02.26	Caxias - Guarany de Bagé	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
21.02.26	Inter Santa Maria - Guarany de Bagé	0:1 ✺
16.02.26	Guarany de Bagé - Inter Santa Maria	3:2 ✺
09.02.26	Avenida - Guarany de Bagé	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.7 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
06.02.26	Guarany de Bagé - Monsoon	0:0
10.01.26	Guarany de Bagé - Monsoon	1:1
06.02.25	Monsoon - Guarany de Bagé	1:3
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho 2
13.08.23	Monsoon - Guarany de Bagé	0:0
06.08.23	Guarany de Bagé - Monsoon	1:0

Monsoon - Guarany de Bagé: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide