Match Info

K League 2 - Round 21

Date: 20 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Changwon Football Centre Stadium (Changwon)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
South-korea	Coupang Play, Maxports, Maxports
World	K League TV


	Gyeongnam		Incheon United

	1	X	2
	5.5	4.2	1.48	Watch
	5.5	4.1	1.44
	5.7	4.35	1.47
	6.2	4.51	1.5
	5.63	4.09	1.56	Watch
	6	4	1.44
	6.24	4.3	1.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.82 ↓ (5.95)	4.22 ↓ (4.32)	1.48 ↑ (1.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gyeongnam
15.8%

Draw
21.8%

Incheon United
62.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.5%

21.4%

63.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.8%

20.4%

66.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gyeongnam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Incheon United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gyeongnam than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Incheon United than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Gyeongnam - Incheon United Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Gyeongnam (1.76) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -0.75 - Incheon (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Incheon United will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Gyeongnam (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Incheon (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
91. Choe Pil-Soo (G) 11. Park Min-Seo 5. Kim Hyeong-Jin 3. Lee Gyu-Baeg 66. Lee Min-Ki 77. Ha-min K. 40. Lee Chan-Dong (C) 29. Park Gi-Hyun 88. Renan Areias 10. Bruno Costa 89. Darnlei	1. Min Seong-Jun (G) 39. Kim Myung-Sun 4. Kim Gun-Hee 28. Kim Geon-Ung 3. Lee Sang-Gi 11. Gerso 5. Lee Myoung-Joo (C) 88. Jung Won-Jin 14. Barrow M. 77. Park Seung-Ho 9. Mugosa S.
Substitutes
9. Leonardo Kalil 20. Macedo R. 14. Minsu J. 2. Park Jae-Hwan 42. Park Tae-Yong 33. Park Won-Jae 51. Ryu Won-Woo (G)	13. Choi Seung-gu 97. Kim Dong-Heon (G) 19. Kim Min-Seog 17. Kim Seong-Min 15. Lim Hyeong-Jin 99. Park Ho-Min 8. Shin Jin-Ho
Coaches
Lee E.	Yoon Jong-Hwan

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Lee Chan-Dong 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
58', Jung Won-Jin ↓, Choi Seung-gu ↑,
58', Mugosa S. ↓, Shin Jin-Ho ↑,
60', Park Min-Seo ↓, Macedo R. ↑,
61', Park Gi-Hyun ↓, Park Won-Jae ↑,
75', Shin Jin-Ho (Pen),
78', Lee Min-Ki ↓, Minsu J. ↑,
78', Renan Areias ↓, Park Tae-Yong ↑,
78', Ha-min K. ↓, Leonardo Kalil ↑,
81', Park Seung-Ho ↓, Park Ho-Min ↑,
81', Barrow M. ↓, Kim Min-Seog ↑,
82', Park Tae-Yong 🟨,
82', Lee Sang-Gi 🟨,
84', Gerso 🟨,
86', 0 - 1, Park Ho-Min ⚽, Choi Seung-gu (A),
90+5', Gerso ↓, Kim Seong-Min ↑,
90+8', 0 - 2, Shin Jin-Ho ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ K League 1).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gyeongnam won 0.

Gyeongnam has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Incheon is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Gyeongnam may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Incheon is the obvious favorite.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Gyeongnam won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:16. (average 0.8:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Gyeongnam won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 0.9:0.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gyeongnam FC
South Korean K-League 2
12.07.25	Jeonnam Dragons - Gyeongnam	1:0 ✺
05.07.25	Gyeongnam - Ansan Greeners	1:1 ✺
28.06.25	Bucheon - Gyeongnam	2:0 ✺
22.06.25	Gyeongnam - Suwon Bluewings	1:3 ✺
15.06.25	Gimpo - Gyeongnam	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LTLLL
- Incheon United
South Korean K-League 2
13.07.25	Incheon United - Chungnam Asan	2:1 ✺
05.07.25	Jeonnam Dragons - Incheon United	2:1 ✺
29.06.25	Gimpo - Incheon United	1:1 ✺
21.06.25	Incheon United - Hwaseong	2:0 ✺
15.06.25	Suwon Bluewings - Incheon United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K-League 2
22.02.25	Incheon United - Gyeongnam	2:0
South Korean Cup
24.05.23	Incheon United - Gyeongnam	3:0
South Korean K-League 1
30.11.19	Gyeongnam - Incheon United	0:0
30.07.19	Incheon United - Gyeongnam	1:1
22.06.19	Gyeongnam - Incheon United	1:1
09.03.19	Incheon United - Gyeongnam	2:1
30.09.18	Incheon United - Gyeongnam	2:2

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