Match Info

POLAND: DIVISION 1 - ROUND 10

Date: 2 October 2023, Monday

Location: Stadion GKS Górnik Łęczna (Leczna)

Referee: Sulikowski D. (Pol)


	Górnik Łęczna		Zagłębie Sosnowiec

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.3	2.55
	2.55	3.25	2.5
	2.55	3.4	2.6	Watch
	2.63	3.38	2.72
	2.45	3.3	2.5
	2.53	3.32	2.61
	2.5	3.25	2.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.09)	3.31 ↓ (3.35)	2.6 ↓ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Górnik Łęczna
36.5%

Draw
27.9%

Zagłębie Sosnowiec
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

27.4%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

26.4%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Górnik Łęczna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Górnik Łęczna's form might have worsened.

Zagłębie Sosnowiec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Zagłębie Sosnowiec's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Górnik Łęczna than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Górnik Łęczna, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zagłębie Sosnowiec than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Zagłębie Sosnowiec, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	21.4%	35.7%

Górnik Łęczna - Zagłębie Sosnowiec Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Górnik Łęczna will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Zagłębie Sosnowiec will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Górnik Łęczna: 17% – 68.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Gostomski M. (C) 25. Zbozien D. 6. De Amo J. 4. Klemenz L. 3. Grabowski M. 16. Zyra P. 10. Deja A. 77. Gaska D. 8. Kryeziu E. 19. Starzynski P. 9. Podlinski K.	33. Kos M. (G) 27. Jonczy D. 2. Bykov O. 13. Dalic V. 77. Wrzesinski K. 14. Bonecki S. 29. Rozwandowicz M. (C) 19. Ziemann M. 17. Valencia J. 95. Zielonka N. 9. Bilinski K.
Substitutes
21. Bednarczyk J. 30. Cisse S. 29. Dziwniel D. 11. Janaszek F. 17. Lukasiak K. 5. Pawlik M. 47. Steszuk M. 23. Turek K. 12. Wozniak T. (G)	28. Bebenek K. 96. Calinski P. 47. Dziedzic I. 18. Guezen D. 4. Machala M. 23. Matynia H. 16. Ryndak D. 1. Sorcan G. (G)
Coaches
Mamrot I.	Derbin A.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Ekstraklasa and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Górnik Łęczna won 2.

Górnik Łęczna is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Zagłębie Sosnowiec is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Górnik Łęczna could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Górnik Łęczna won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Górnik Łęczna won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Górnik Łęczna
Polish Cup
27.09.23	Górnik Łęczna - Cracovia	3:4 ✺
Polish Division 1
22.09.23	Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biała - Górnik Łęczna	1:1 ✺
18.09.23	Górnik Łęczna - Resovia Rzeszów	3:1 ✺
02.09.23	Znicz Pruszków - Górnik Łęczna	0:1 ✺
26.08.23	Górnik Łęczna - Wisła Płock	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LTWWW
- Zagłębie Sosnowiec
Polish Cup
27.09.23	Gryf Wejherowo - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	1:3 ✺
Polish Division 1
24.09.23	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Termalica Nieciecza	1:3 ✺
15.09.23	GKS Katowice - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
08.09.23	Cracovia - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	3:1 ✺
Polish Division 1
03.09.23	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Lechia Gdańsk	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
21.05.23	Górnik Łęczna - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	0:0
23.10.22	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Górnik Łęczna	2:2
06.06.21	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Górnik Łęczna	0:1
06.12.20	Górnik Łęczna - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	4:1
24.11.17	Zagłębie Sosnowiec - Górnik Łęczna	2:2
05.08.17	Górnik Łęczna - Zagłębie Sosnowiec	2:1

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