Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Relegation Group - Round 25

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Veritas Stadion (Turku)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
World	OneFootball TV


	TPS		Ilves

	1	X	2
	2.60	3.50	2.30	Watch
	2.65	3.50	2.40
	2.63	3.60	2.45	Watch
	2.83	3.65	2.49
	2.58	3.69	2.53	Watch
	2.80	3.50	2.45
	2.69	3.62	2.38	Watch
	2.60	3.45	2.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.59)	3.56 ↑ (3.54)	2.42 ↓ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

TPS
35%

Draw
26.3%

Ilves
38.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

26.4%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

26.2%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

TPS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Ilves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

TPS - Ilves Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Henriksson E. (G) 2. Haggstrom O. 14. Hradecky M. 25. Tamba A. 20. Kauppila M. 6. Juvanteny P. (C) 22. Zaal T. 10. Konkkola M. 28. Vakiparta T. 11. Vauhkonen E. 99. Visser K.	12. Krkalic F. (G) 24. Kumpu V. 16. Miettunen T. 5. Vaisanen S. (C) 19. Bamba G. 22. Multala O. 6. Raap Y. 13. Wallius K. 8. Stjopin M. 9. Hytonen T. 28. Kilo J.
Substitutes
45. Ahen J. 41. Anini S. 7. Harjanne R. 9. Ivanovic L. 35. Lauri D. (G) 17. Sihvonen A. 24. Talo N.	15. Ala-Myllymaki L. 17. Baranov S. 11. Coulibaly H. 27. Kouakou F. 31. Leislahti R. (G) 3. Rale M. 45. Tamminen E.
Coaches
Pinol I.	Speranza C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', Tamba A. 🟨,
4', Hytonen T. (Penalty Awarded),
24', 0 - 1, Hytonen T. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
60', Raap Y. ↓, Ala-Myllymaki L. ↑,
60', Miettunen T. ↓, Rale M. ↑,
60', Stjopin M. ↓, Tamminen E. ↑,
66', Zaal T. 🟨,
67', 0 - 2, Tamminen E. ⚽, Multala O. (A),
72', Kilo J. ↓, Baranov S. ↑,
72', Vauhkonen E. ↓, Anini S. ↑,
84', Hradecky M. ↓, Sihvonen A. ↑,
84', Vakiparta T. ↓, Ahen J. ↑,
86', Hytonen T. ↓, Coulibaly H. ↑,
87', Vaisanen S. 🟨,
90+2', 0 - 3, Baranov S. ⚽, Tamminen E. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS won 0.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Recently, Ilves has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for TPS: Azongnitode C. (Yellow Cards) Ikonen L. (Yellow Cards) Karkulowski T. (Inactive).

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, TPS has recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:33 (averaging 0.3:2.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for TPS against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with 3:16 goals (averaging 0.6:3.2 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TPS
Finnish Veikkausliiga
12.09.26	IFK Mariehamn - TPS	1:0 ✺
08.09.26	TPS - SJK	0:0 ✺
31.08.26	Gnistan - TPS	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	TPS - Inter Turku	0:0 ✺
14.08.26	VPS Vaasa - TPS	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 LTTTW
- FC Ilves
Finnish Veikkausliiga
12.09.26	Ilves - Lahti	3:1 ✺
08.09.26	Ilves - FF Jaro	2:0 ✺
31.08.26	Ilves - HJK	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Ilves - VPS Vaasa	0:1 ✺
17.08.26	Gnistan - Ilves	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
20.07.26	TPS - Ilves	1:3
13.06.26	Ilves - TPS	1:0
Finnish Cup
27.05.26	Ilves - TPS	1:0
26.04.23	TPS - Ilves	0:2
Club Friendly
25.03.23	Ilves - TPS	2:0
15.01.21	TPS - Ilves	1:7
Finnish Veikkausliiga
27.09.20	Ilves - TPS	4:0

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