Match Info

Kansallinen Liiga Women - Championship Group

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: JYA Housing Areena (Helsinki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+


	HPS		Åland United

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.50	2.35
	2.65	3.50	2.14
	2.51	3.35	2.42
	2.53	3.49	2.43	Watch
	2.45	3.30	2.35
	2.47	3.70	2.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↓ (2.65)	3.47 ↓ (3.65)	2.36 ↑ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HPS
35.9%

Draw
25.9%

Åland United
38.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

24.4%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

23.6%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Åland United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPS than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Åland United than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Åland United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

HPS - Åland United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Roine V. (G) 20. Jaaskelainen O. 12. Kamppi P. 8. Kinnunen A. 15. Oksanen V. 11. Paakkari E. 14. Perttula T. 21. Puolakka L. 9. Rinkinen H. 16. Simonen A. (C) 19. Stark T.	13. Sundelius C. (G) 11. Antikainen N. 3. Degerstedt E. 8. Hagstrom M. (C) 44. Hillberg S. 6. Jaatinen S. 19. Pitko N. 2. Ratts A. 14. Torronen A. 15. Veber V. 10. Vetter J.
Substitutes
7. Kahre O. 2. Kataja M. 23. Korpela T. (G) 29. Lamberg A. 24. Nurminen M. 5. Reis O. 17. Sinivuori F. 4. Welling E.	18. Hansell E. 21. Hordijk C. 1. Niiranen L. (G) 22. Nordberg O. 5. Nurmi A. 9. Sarjanoja I. 16. Takanen M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Torronen A. ↓, Takanen M. ↑,
62', Rinkinen H. ↓, Kahre O. ↑,
62', Jaaskelainen O. ↓, Kataja M. ↑,
63', 1 - 0, Perttula T. ⚽, Kataja M. (A),
64', Ratts A. 🟨,
76', Stark T. ↓, Sinivuori F. ↑,
76', Perttula T. ↓, Reis O. ↑,
79', Pitko N. ↓, Sarjanoja I. ↑,
80', Hillberg S. ↓, Nordberg O. ↑,
80', Ratts A. ↓, Hordijk C. ↑,
90+3', Simonen A. ↓, Nurminen M. ↑,
90+4', Takanen M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPS won 2.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 19 head-to-head meetings, HPS has recorded 6 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 27:40 (averaging 1.4:2.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for HPS against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 14:14 goals (averaging 1.6:1.6 per game).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Aland Utd W	22	14	1	7	56:30	26	43
4	HPS W	22	12	5	5	34:25	9	41

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Helsingin Palloseura Women
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
19.09.26	KuPS - HPS	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Gnistan - HPS	1:3 ✺
Finnish Cup Women
06.09.26	HPS - HJK	1:3 AET ✺
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
29.08.26	HPS - Ilves	1:0 ✺
21.08.26	HPS - HJK	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TWLWT
- Åland United
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
19.09.26	Ilves - Åland United	2:3 ✺
13.09.26	Åland United - KuPS	0:2 ✺
29.08.26	HJK - Åland United	2:1 ✺
23.08.26	Gnistan - Åland United	2:3 ✺
16.08.26	Åland United - HPS	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
16.08.26	Åland United - HPS	2:1
28.06.26	Åland United - HPS	0:0
25.04.26	HPS - Åland United	1:0
18.10.25	HPS - Åland United	2:1
07.10.25	Åland United - HPS	6:2
28.06.25	HPS - Åland United	3:1
26.04.25	Åland United - HPS	3:2

HPS - Åland United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide