Match Info

WORLD: Club Friendly

Date: 10 October 2024, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Sky Sport Bundesliga, Sky Sport News


	Hamburger SV		AGF Aarhus

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.79	3.7	3.45
	1.78	3.93	3.7	Watch
	1.8	3.8	3.4
	1.84	3.96	3.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (2.42)	3.85 ↑ (3.67)	3.61 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
50.8%

Draw
23.8%

AGF Aarhus
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

24.8%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

24.5%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hamburger SV's performance.

AGF Aarhus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AGF Aarhus might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (-12.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hamburger SV that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AGF Aarhus than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AGF Aarhus could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Hamburger SV - AGF Aarhus Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Aarhus will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hamburg: 45% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. Raab M. (G) 7. Dompe J. 5. Hadzikadunic D. 18. Jatta B. 33. Katterbach N. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 21. Oztunali L. 24. Perrin L. 6. Poreba L. 14. Reis L. 27. Selke D.	13. Klaesson K. (G) 27. Akoto M. 23. Bach T. 15. Badji Y. 29. Brandhof F. 20. Duelund M. 18. Gyamfi R. 19. Kahl E. 11. Links G. 16. Power M. 5. Tingager F.
Substitutes
37. Bornschein L. 9. Glatzel R. 40. Hermann H. (G) 3. Heyer M. 36. Kilo J. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 47. Oliveira N. 20. Richter M. 43. Seifert L. 42. Sillah O. 49. Stange O.	4. Anker T. 2. Beijmo F. 54. Emmery F. 24. Halsgaard A. 1. Hansen J. (G) 25. Kannegaard Kristensen M. 7. Madsen M. 9. Mortensen P. 6. Poulsen N. 52. Strandby N. 55. Tchamche S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Duelund M. 🟨,
20', Bach T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', 1 - 0, Jatta B. ⚽,
70', 1 - 1, Mortensen P. ⚽,

Preview

Hamburg is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Aarhus is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German 2 Bundesliga
06.10.24	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Hamburger SV	0:3 ✺
28.09.24	Hamburger SV - Paderborn	2:2 ✺
21.09.24	Kaiserslautern - Hamburger SV	2:2 ✺
15.09.24	Hamburger SV - Jahn Regensburg	5:0 ✺
31.08.24	Hamburger SV - Preußen Münster	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WTTWW
- AGF Aarhus
Danish Superliga
06.10.24	Viborg - AGF Aarhus	1:1 ✺
28.09.24	AGF Aarhus - Randers FC	2:2 ✺
Danish Landspokal Cup
25.09.24	VSK Aarhus - AGF Aarhus	0:2 ✺
Danish Superliga
22.09.24	Lyngby BK - AGF Aarhus	0:0 ✺
15.09.24	AGF Aarhus - Silkeborg IF	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 TTWTT

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