Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 4

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Exner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hamburger SV		Heidenheim

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.9	4.5	Watch
	1.75	3.95	4.25	Watch
	1.81	4.05	4.55
	2.04	2.99	4.17	Watch
	1.78	3.97	4.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.02)	3.77 ↑ (3.6)	4.41 ↑ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
52.7%

Draw
25.5%

Heidenheim
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

26.5%

26.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

27.5%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hamburger SV's performance.

Heidenheim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heidenheim than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.5%	30.4%	13%

Hamburger SV - Heidenheim Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 13 - 56.5%). Heidenheim will win (votes: 3 - 13%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 30.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hamburg: 36.2% – 76.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Hamburg (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Hamburg (1.58) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 8 - 80%). Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 17. Omari W. 44. Vuskovic L. 8. Elfadli D. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 21. Remberg N. 20. Vieira F. 28. Muheim M. (C) 14. Philippe R. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 7. Dompe J.	41. Ramaj D. (G) 23. Traore O. H. 6. Mainka P. (C) 5. Gimber B. 19. Fohrenbach J. 20. Kerber L. 30. Dorsch N. 31. Conteh S. 3. Schoppner J. 22. Ibrahimovic A. 29. Kaufmann M.
Substitutes
45. Balde F. 24. Capaldo N. 9. Glatzel R. 6. Lokonga A. S. 23. Meffert J. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 26. Peretz D. (G) 38. Rossing-Lelesiit A. 22. Soumahoro A.	21. Beck A. 2. Busch M. 28. Kolle A. 1. Muller K. (G) 16. Niehues J. 33. Rothweiler N. 9. Schimmer S. 4. Siersleben T. 38. Wagner Y.
Coaches
Polzin M.	Schmidt F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Elfadli D. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Vuskovic L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', Kerber L. ↓, Beck A. ↑,
57', Philippe R. 🟨,
59', 2 - 0, Philippe R. ⚽, Vieira F. (A),
64', Vieira F. 🟨,
68', Schoppner J. ↓, Schimmer S. ↑,
68', Gimber B. ↓, Busch M. ↑,
72', Remberg N. 🟨,
74', Philippe R. ↓, Lokonga A. S. ↑,
74', Dompe J. ↓, Balde F. ↑,
78', Ibrahimovic A. ↓, Kolle A. ↑,
78', Kaufmann M. ↓, Wagner Y. ↑,
79', Vieira F. ↓, Rossing-Lelesiit A. ↑,
80', Kolle A. 🟨,
86', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Glatzel R. ↑,
86', Gocholeishvili G. ↓, Mikelbrencis W. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 1, Kolle A. ⚽, Traore O. H. (A),
90+3', Heuer Fernandes D. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 3.

Hamburg has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Heidenheim's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Hamburg will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Hamburg: Hefti S. (Hip Injury) Poulsen Y. (Inactive) Ramos G. (Personal Reasons) Torunarigha J. (Injury)

There will not play in Heidenheim: Feller F. (Knee Injury) Honsak M. (Muscle Injury) Keller T. (Knee Injury) Paqarada L. (Knee Injury) Pieringer M. (Ankle Injury) Zivzivadze B. (Red Card)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:3. (average 1.6:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Bayern Munich - Hamburger SV	5:0 ✺
Club Friendly
04.09.25	Hamburger SV - Hannover	1:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.08.25	Hamburger SV - St. Pauli	0:2 ✺
24.08.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Hamburger SV	0:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
16.08.25	Pirmasens - Hamburger SV	1:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLTW
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Heidenheim - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
05.09.25	Kaiserslautern - Heidenheim	2:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
30.08.25	RB Leipzig - Heidenheim	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Heidenheim - Wolfsburg	1:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
16.08.25	Bahlinger - Heidenheim	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
11.02.23	Heidenheim - Hamburger SV	3:3
06.08.22	Hamburger SV - Heidenheim	1:0
12.02.22	Hamburger SV - Heidenheim	2:0
28.08.21	Heidenheim - Hamburger SV	0:0
20.03.21	Hamburger SV - Heidenheim	2:0
29.11.20	Heidenheim - Hamburger SV	3:2
21.06.20	Heidenheim - Hamburger SV	2:1

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