Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 18

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Schroder R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hamburger SV		Borussia Mönchengladbach

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.5	2.8	Watch
	2.42	3.45	2.88	Watch
	2.42	3.53	2.85	Watch
	2.4	3.3	2.75
	2.5	3.57	2.86	Watch
	2.42	3.4	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.4)	3.46 ↓ (3.63)	2.84 ↑ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hamburger SV
39%

Draw
27.5%

Borussia Mönchengladbach
33.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

26.2%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.9%

26.1%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Borussia Mönchengladbach has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Mönchengladbach than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	27.3%	27.3%

Hamburger SV - Borussia Mönchengladbach Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 15 - 45.5%). Borussia M will win (votes: 9 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hamburg: 28.5% – 62.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Hamburg (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Hamburg (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hamburger SV will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Heuer Fernandes D. (G) 24. Capaldo N. (C) 44. Vuskovic L. 25. Torunarigha J. 18. Jatta B. 20. Vieira F. 21. Remberg N. 28. Muheim M. 11. Konigsdorffer R. 19. Downs D. 7. Dompe J.	33. Nicolas M. (G) 16. Sander P. 30. Elvedi N. 4. Diks K. 29. Scally J. 27. Reitz R. (C) 6. Engelhardt Y. 20. Netz L. 9. Honorat F. 10. Neuhaus F. 15. Tabakovic H.
Substitutes
9. Glatzel R. 16. Gocholeishvili G. 40. Hermann H. (G) 39. Megeed O. 2. Mikelbrencis W. 10. Pherai I. 14. Philippe R. 13. Ramos G. 38. Rossing-Lelesiit A.	17. Castrop J. 18. Machino S. 36. Mohya W. 1. Omlin J. (G) 28. Ranos G. 13. Reyna G. 7. Stoger K. 14. Takai K. 26. Ullrich L.
Coaches
Polzin M.	Polanski E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Engelhardt Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Diks K. 🟨,
67', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
67', Capaldo N. ↓, Gocholeishvili G. ↑,
69', Honorat F. ↓, Castrop J. ↑,
69', Neuhaus F. ↓, Reyna G. ↑,
79', Downs D. ↓, Glatzel R. ↑,
80', Dompe J. ↓, Rossing-Lelesiit A. ↑,
80', Torunarigha J. 🟨,
85', Jatta B. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
88', Diks K. ↓, Takai K. ↑,
90+2', Tabakovic H. ↓, Machino S. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 2.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Borussia M may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Hamburg: Elfadli D. (Red Card) Omari W. (Knee Injury) Poulsen Y. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Borussia M: Chiarodia F. C. (Thigh Injury) Friedrich M. (Ankle Injury) Hack R. (Knee Injury) Kleindienst T. (Knee Injury) Ngoumou N. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Hamburg: Balde F. (Illness)

There are questionable in Borussia M: Omlin J. (Illness)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:22. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:10. (average 1.6:1.3).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

B. Monchengladbach: 0.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2:13	-11	3
18	B. Monchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6:16	-10	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga
10.01.26	Freiburg - Hamburger SV	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Hamburger SV - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV	4:1 ✺
07.12.25	Hamburger SV - Werder Bremen	3:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.12.25	Hamburger SV - Holstein Kiel	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTLWL
- Borussia Mönchengladbach
German Bundesliga
14.01.26	Hoffenheim - Borussia Mönchengladbach	5:1 ✺
11.01.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Augsburg	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Hannover - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
19.12.25	Borussia Dortmund - Borussia Mönchengladbach	2:0 ✺
13.12.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Wolfsburg	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
24.08.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Hamburger SV	0:0
12.05.18	Hamburger SV - Borussia Mönchengladbach	2:1
15.12.17	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Hamburger SV	3:1
12.03.17	Hamburger SV - Borussia Mönchengladbach	2:1
German DFB Pokal
01.03.17	Hamburger SV - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:2
German Bundesliga
15.10.16	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Hamburger SV	0:0
14.02.16	Hamburger SV - Borussia Mönchengladbach	3:2

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