Match Info

National League - Round 21

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Victoria Park (Hartlepool)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hartlepool United		Truro City

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.7	5
	1.65	3.75	4.75
	1.62	4.12	5.11
	1.81	3.62	4.03	Watch
	1.61	3.64	4.92
	1.63	4	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.81)	3.81 ↑ (3.62)	4.76 ↑ (4.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartlepool United
56.1%

Draw
24.4%

Truro City
19.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

25.7%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

24.7%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartlepool United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

Truro City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Truro City than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Hartlepool United - Truro City Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Evans G. (G) 2. Benn J. 5. Kouogun M. 4. Parkes T. 3. John C. 15. Hunter J. 14. Sheron N. 18. Miley J. 10. Campbell A. 28. Daly M. 19. Reid A.	1. Lavercombe D. (G) 12. Oxlade-Chamberlain C. 25. Donnellan S. 5. Harrison T. 20. Law R. 4. Dean W. 14. Hasani L. 28. Deeming C. 3. Riley-Lowe C. (C) 26. Marsh A. 9. Harvey T.
Substitutes
30. Aungiers J. 24. Brown P. 8. Ferguson N. 7. Francis J. 9. Johnson D. 40. Smith A. (G) 23. Topalloj B.	2. Bell Z. 7. En-Neyah Y. 27. Janneh S. 15. Jephcott L. 21. Kinsey M. 8. Rooney D. 24. Stone A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Campbell A. ⚽, Sheron N. (A),
26', Parkes T. 🟨,
33', Oxlade-Chamberlain C. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
59', 1 - 1, Marsh A. ⚽, Deeming C. (A),
62', Daly M. ↓, Brown P. ↑,
62', Sheron N. ↓, Francis J. ↑,
74', 2 - 1, Miley J. ⚽, Francis J. (A),
75', Deeming C. ↓, Rooney D. ↑,
78', Riley-Lowe C. ↓, Janneh S. ↑,
82', Marsh A. ↓, Jephcott L. ↑,
83', Campbell A. ↓, Topalloj B. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 1, Reid A. ⚽, Francis J. (A),

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 8 and 24 in the zone Relegation).

Hartlepool is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Truro is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Truro may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Hartlepool is considered a favorite.

We predict that Hartlepool will win today's game, with odds of 1.71.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartlepool United
English National League
22.11.25	Eastleigh - Hartlepool United	0:2 ✺
15.11.25	Hartlepool United - Wealdstone	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Halifax Town - Hartlepool United	0:1 ✺
04.11.25	Hartlepool United - Morecambe	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Hartlepool United - Solihull Moors	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WTWTW
- Truro City
English National League Cup
25.11.25	Truro City - West Ham United U21	0:3 ✺
English National League
22.11.25	Truro City - Sutton United	2:3 ✺
15.11.25	Braintree Town - Truro City	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Truro City - Altrincham	0:1 ✺
05.11.25	Solihull Moors - Truro City	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

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