Match Info

National League - Round 17

Date: 4 November 2025, Tuesday

Location: Victoria Park (Hartlepool)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hartlepool United		Morecambe

	1	X	2
	1.7	4	3.9
	1.75	4.05	3.75
	1.71	4.8	3.79
	1.57	4.54	4.53	Watch
	1.69	4	3.9
	1.68	4.2	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.57)	4.27 ↓ (4.54)	4 ↓ (4.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartlepool United
55.1%

Draw
21.7%

Morecambe
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.1%

20.4%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

19.4%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartlepool United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Morecambe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Hartlepool United - Morecambe Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Hartlepool (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Hartlepool United will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Evans G. (G) 2. Benn J. 5. Kouogun M. 3. John C. 23. Topalloj B. 14. Sheron N. (C) 15. Hunter J. 7. Francis J. 10. Campbell A. 28. Daly M. 9. Johnson D.	40. Blackman J. (G) 2. Payne L. 5. Kacurri M. 6. Francillette L. 15. Williams B. 11. Muskwe A. 10. Cain J. 8. Azeez M. (C) 29. Dixon-Bonner E. 28. Sutton E. 18. Tollitt B.
Substitutes
8. Ferguson N. 18. Miley J. 4. Parkes T. 19. Reid A. 40. Smith A. (G) 38. Walker B.	12. Aarons R. 1. Mair A. (G) 36. Nolan J. 21. Nuttall J. 33. Raikhy A. 14. Sesay A. 24. Songo'o Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Campbell A. ⚽, Francis J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', 1 - 1, Muskwe A. (Pen),
54', Muskwe A. 🟨,
55', Benn J. 🟨,
62', Francis J. ↓, Parkes T. ↑,
62', Johnson D. ↓, Reid A. ↑,
62', Hunter J. ↓, Miley J. ↑,
80', Cain J. ↓, Songo'o Y. ↑,
80', Sutton E. ↓, Nuttall J. ↑,
80', Dixon-Bonner E. ↓, Aarons R. ↑,
90+5', Williams B. ↓, Sesay A. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 23 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hartlepool won 2.

In recent matches, Hartlepool has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Morecambe is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Morecambe may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Hartlepool is considered a favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Hartlepool won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:15. (average 1.7:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Hartlepool won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 10:7. (average 2:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Morecambe - the odds 4.53 are the expected chance of winning is 20.48%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartlepool United
English National League
25.10.25	Hartlepool United - Solihull Moors	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	Sutton United - Hartlepool United	3:3 ✺
English FA Cup
14.10.25	Hartlepool United - Gainsborough Trinity	1:3 ✺
11.10.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Hartlepool United	1:1 ✺
English National League
04.10.25	Hartlepool United - York City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WTLTL
- Morecambe
English National League
25.10.25	Eastleigh - Morecambe	2:1 ✺
21.10.25	Boston United - Morecambe	0:4 ✺
18.10.25	Morecambe - Southend United	0:3 ✺
English FA Cup
14.10.25	Chester - Morecambe	2:0 ✺
11.10.25	Morecambe - Chester	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
20.09.22	Morecambe - Hartlepool United	1:0 penalties
05.10.21	Hartlepool United - Morecambe	3:2 penalties
English FA Cup
04.11.17	Morecambe - Hartlepool United	3:0
English League Two
08.04.17	Morecambe - Hartlepool United	1:1
30.12.16	Hartlepool United - Morecambe	3:2
09.04.16	Morecambe - Hartlepool United	2:5
08.08.15	Hartlepool United - Morecambe	2:0

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