Match Info

I Lyga - Round 16

Date: 21 July 2026, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Hegelmann Litauen 2		Žalgiris Vilnius 2

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.85	3.40	2.10
	3.6	3.85	1.72
	4.05	4.01	1.66
	3.48	3.83	1.83	Watch
	3.85	3.95	1.63
	4.22	4.12	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.68 ↑ (3.07)	3.86 ↑ (3.48)	1.77 ↓ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hegelmann Litauen 2
24.8%

Draw
23.6%

Žalgiris Vilnius 2
51.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.5%

26.1%

44.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2%

25.9%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hegelmann Litauen 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Žalgiris Vilnius 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Žalgiris Vilnius 2's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hegelmann Litauen 2 than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Žalgiris Vilnius 2 than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Žalgiris Vilnius 2, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	20%	60%

Hegelmann Litauen 2 - Žalgiris Vilnius 2 Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Hegelmann 2 will win (votes: 2 - 20%). Žalgiris 2 will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Žalgiris 2: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Žalgiris 2 (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Žalgiris 2 (2.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Žalgiris 2 (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Žalgiris 2 (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', Bicka K. (Penalty Awarded),
45+1', 0 - 1, Bicka K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
74', 0 - 2, Berenta V. ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 13 and 10).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Hegelmann 2 won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1.7:2.7).

Including home match between the teams, Hegelmann 2 won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Zalgiris 2	25	13	4	8	38:32	6	43
14	Hegelmann Litauen 2	25	6	1	18	26:59	-33	19

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hegelmann Litauen 2
Lithuanian Division 2
02.07.26	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Hegelmann Litauen 2	3:1 ✺
27.06.26	Hegelmann Litauen 2 - Jonava	2:1 ✺
20.06.26	BFA Vilnius - Hegelmann Litauen 2	0:1 ✺
12.06.26	Hegelmann Litauen 2 - Babrungas Plungė	0:1 ✺
30.05.26	Tauras Tauragė - Hegelmann Litauen 2	6:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.7 LWWLL
- Žalgiris Vilnius 2
Lithuanian Division 2
02.07.26	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Hegelmann Litauen 2	3:1 ✺
26.06.26	BE1 NFA Kaunas - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	2:1 ✺
21.06.26	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Jonava	1:2 ✺
13.06.26	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Garliava	2:1 ✺
30.05.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
02.07.26	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Hegelmann Litauen 2	3:1
26.09.25	Hegelmann Litauen 2 - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	1:1
26.05.25	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Hegelmann Litauen 2	4:3

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