Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 3

Date: 21 August 2026, Friday

Location: GS Staalwerken Stadion (Helmond)

Referee: Hardeman T. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN 4
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Helmond Sport		Waalwijk

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.70	1.76	Watch
	3.80	3.60	1.80
	3.70	3.70	1.77	Watch
	3.80	3.75	1.93
	3.73	3.67	1.91	Watch
	3.70	3.60	1.89
	3.70	3.58	1.91	Watch
	3.60	3.45	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.8 ↑ (3.32)	3.63 ↑ (3.52)	1.86 ↓ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Helmond Sport
24.4%

Draw
25.5%

Waalwijk
50%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.9%

26.4%

45.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.7%

25.3%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Helmond Sport has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Waalwijk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Helmond Sport than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Waalwijk than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Helmond Sport - Waalwijk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bergsen M. (G) 20. Dekkers S. 4. Koglin B. (C) 43. Landheer T. 17. Lantaki W. 30. Ekoli K. 6. Ludwig M. 44. van der Velde X. 19. Ingason H. 94. Lenaerts M. 9. Bajrami L.	1. Schiks N. (C) 33. Al Mazyani F. 4. van Gelderen L. 30. de Wijs J. 5. Familia-Castillo J. 8. Nap J. 10. van Leeuwen T. 6. Postma L. 7. Fage R. 9. van de Haar J. 20. Varela K.
Substitutes
11. Cicero L. 23. El Maach A. (G) 34. Essakkati T. 47. Geerts D. 8. Llonch P. 35. Meissner N. 2. van Bree R. 21. Van der Heijden W. (G) 26. van Zutphen D.	25. Bakboord N. 24. Dkidak A. 45. el Harchaoui A. 55. Held N. 16. Spenkelink M. (G) 27. Stokkers F. 3. van der Plas S. 11. van der Veen Y. 19. van Gemert H. 18. van Hedel R. 31. Vogels L. (G)
Coaches
Frans F.	Duits S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Lenaerts M. ⚽, Ingason H. (A),
19', Ludwig M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Varela K. ↓, van der Veen Y. ↑,
57', Ekoli K. ↓, Cicero L. ↑,
57', Koglin B. 🟨,
66', Fage R. ↓, Stokkers F. ↑,
67', Bajrami L. ↓, Llonch P. ↑,
75', Lenaerts M. 🟨,
75', Postma L. ↓, Dkidak A. ↑,
75', van Leeuwen T. ↓, van Hedel R. ↑,
79', 1 - 1, van der Veen Y. ⚽, Al Mazyani F. (A),
84', Dkidak A. 🟨,
87', Ludwig M. ↓, Essakkati T. ↑,
87', van de Haar J. ↓, van Gemert H. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Helmond Sport won 0.

Recent form of Helmond Sport has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Waalwijk has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

Waalwijk is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There are questionable in Helmond Sport: Essakkati T. (Injury) Poll T. (Injury)

There are questionable in Waalwijk: Zorgdrager B. (Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Helmond Sport won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:19. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Helmond Sport won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 1.5:1.2).

Outrights of Dutch Eerste Divisie for now

Waalwijk: 7.38%

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Waalwijk	10	3	5	2	19:15	4	14
17	Helmond	10	2	3	5	16:19	-3	9

Last Results with these Odds

Waalwijk - the odds 2.03 are the expected chance of winning is 45.66%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Helmond Sport
Dutch Eerste Divisie
14.08.26	Roda - Helmond Sport	2:1 ✺
09.08.26	Helmond Sport - De Graafschap	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Helmond Sport - Sint-Truidense	1:0 ✺
17.07.26	Helmond Sport - Al-Taawoun	0:2 ✺
12.07.26	Helmond Sport - Westerlo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 LTWLL
- RKC Waalwijk
Dutch Eerste Divisie
14.08.26	Waalwijk - Dordrecht	2:2 ✺
07.08.26	Vitesse - Waalwijk	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.26	Waalwijk - AE Kifisia	3:0 ✺
29.07.26	Waalwijk - Patro Eisden Maasmechelen	1:2 ✺
18.07.26	Waalwijk - Volendam	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
06.04.26	Helmond Sport - Waalwijk	2:2
15.08.25	Waalwijk - Helmond Sport	1:1
22.03.19	Waalwijk - Helmond Sport	2:1
17.11.18	Helmond Sport - Waalwijk	0:2
28.04.18	Helmond Sport - Waalwijk	2:2
01.12.17	Waalwijk - Helmond Sport	1:0
03.03.17	Waalwijk - Helmond Sport	5:2

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