Match Info

National League South - Round 30

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday


	Hemel Hempstead Town		Dover Athletic

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.7	4.65
	1.71	3.76	4.66
	1.67	3.99	4.57	Watch
	1.73	3.5	4.5
	1.73	3.67	4.55
	1.68	3.66	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 (1.7)	3.71 ↓ (3.82)	4.57 ↑ (4.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hemel Hempstead Town
54.7%

Draw
25%

Dover Athletic
20.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.6%

24.3%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

23.7%

20.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hemel Hempstead Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Dover Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hemel Hempstead Town than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dover Athletic than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Hemel Hempstead Town - Dover Athletic Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Nikaj G. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
82', 1 - 1, Wiltshire K. ⚽,
90+3', 1 - 2, Hanson R. ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 16).

Hemel Hempstead is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Dover has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Hemel Hempstead may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Hemel Hempstead is considered a favorite.

We predict that Hemel Hempstead will win today's game, with odds of 1.6.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hemel Hempstead won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:8. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Hemel Hempstead won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Hemel Hempstead: 2.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Dover	10	5	2	3	17:16	1	17
12	Hemel Hempstead	10	3	4	3	10:10	0	13

Last Results with these Odds

Dover Athletic - the odds 4.39 are the expected chance of winning is 21.13%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hemel Hempstead Town
English National League South
24.01.26	Maidstone United - Hemel Hempstead Town	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Slough Town	0:3 ✺
10.01.26	Dover Athletic - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:2 ✺
03.01.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Dagenham & Redbridge	1:0 ✺
30.12.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Enfield Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WLWWW
- Dover Athletic
English National League South
24.01.26	Totton - Dover Athletic	3:0 ✺
20.01.26	Dagenham & Redbridge - Dover Athletic	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Dover Athletic - Bath City	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Dover Athletic - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:2 ✺
30.12.25	Dover Athletic - Ebbsfleet United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
10.01.26	Dover Athletic - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:2
06.04.24	Hemel Hempstead Town - Dover Athletic	1:1
21.10.23	Dover Athletic - Hemel Hempstead Town	2:2
28.01.23	Hemel Hempstead Town - Dover Athletic	0:0
27.08.22	Dover Athletic - Hemel Hempstead Town	4:0

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