Match Info

National League South - Round 11

Date: 2 December 2025, Tuesday


	Hemel Hempstead Town		Hornchurch

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.25	2.92
	2.23	3.43	3.07
	2.21	3.52	3.01	Watch
	2.25	3.1	2.9
	2.24	3.15	2.98
	2.25	3.33	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.52)	3.3 ↓ (3.34)	2.96 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hemel Hempstead Town
41.1%

Draw
27.9%

Hornchurch
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

27.8%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

27.4%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hemel Hempstead Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Hornchurch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hemel Hempstead Town than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hornchurch than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Hemel Hempstead Town - Hornchurch Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Hornchurch (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Hemel Hempstead (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Hemel Hempstead (votes: 1 - 50%). Hornchurch (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
2', 0 - 1, Balanta A. ⚽,
13', 0 - 2, Balanta A. ⚽,
26', 0 - 3, McQueen D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', 0 - 4, Gibbs H. ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Hemel Hempstead is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Hornchurch has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Hemel Hempstead may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Hornchurch has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Hemel Hempstead won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Hemel Hempstead won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 3:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Hemel Hempstead Town - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 36.81%, but this team recently wins 21% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hemel Hempstead Town
English National League South
29.11.25	Tonbridge Angels - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:3 ✺
25.11.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chelmsford City	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Horsham	1:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chelmsford City	1:0 penalties ✺
English National League South
08.11.25	Worthing - Hemel Hempstead Town	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WWTWL
- AFC Hornchurch
English National League South
29.11.25	Worthing - Hornchurch	5:0 ✺
22.11.25	Hornchurch - Totton	1:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Brentwood Town - Hornchurch	0:1 penalties ✺
English National League South
10.11.25	Chelmsford City - Hornchurch	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Tonbridge Angels - Hornchurch	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
10.03.25	Hemel Hempstead Town - Hornchurch	3:1
05.11.24	Hornchurch - Hemel Hempstead Town	1:0
English FA Trophy
19.10.13	Hemel Hempstead Town - Hornchurch	3:2

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