Match Info

Super League - Round 24

Date: 12 September 2025, Friday

Location: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium (Zhengzhou)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	Migu, ZhiBo8


	Henan Songshan Longmen		Beijing Guoan

	1	X	2
	2.25	4	2.57	Watch
	2.5	3.7	2.3
	2.72	3.7	2.22
	2.34	4.12	2.71
	2.36	3.94	2.55	Watch
	2.8	3.81	2.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.5 ↓ (3.04)	3.88 ↑ (3.7)	2.45 ↑ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Henan Songshan Longmen
37.6%

Draw
24.2%

Beijing Guoan
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

24.6%

45.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.7%

23.6%

47.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Henan Songshan Longmen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Henan Songshan Longmen's performance.

Beijing Guoan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Beijing Guoan might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Henan Songshan Longmen than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Henan Songshan Longmen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Beijing Guoan than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Beijing Guoan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	7.1%	78.6%

Henan Songshan Longmen - Beijing Guoan Predictions

Users Predictions: Beijing Guoan will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 57.08% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Beijing Guoan will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Wang Guoming (G) 4. Shinar Yeljan 36. Iago Maidana 23. Lucas Maia 22. Huang Ruifeng 7. Zhong Yihao 6. Wang Shangyuan (C) 13. Abudulam A. 40. Bruno Nazario 9. Felippe Cardoso 11. Acheampong F.	34. Hou Sen (G) 27. Wang Gang 2. Wu Shaocong 26. Bai Yang 4. Li Lei 37. Cao Yongjing 23. Dawhan 8. Guga 11. Lin Liangming 29. Abreu F. 10. Zhang Xizhe (C)
Substitutes
3. Gerbig O. 17. He X. 10. Huang Zichang 30. Liu Xinyu 2. Liu Yixin 39. Li Xingxian 27. Niu Ziyi 33. Shi Chenglong (G) 16. Yang Kuo 19. Yang Yilin 29. Zheng Dalun	33. Abbas Nureli (G) 6. Chi Zhongguo 18. Fang Hao 16. Feng Boxuan 3. He Yupeng 35. Jiang Wenhao 19. Muhmet N. 7. Serginho 20. Wang Ziming 17. Yang Liyu 21. Zhang Yuan 9. Zhang Yuning
Coaches
Ramos D.	Setien Q.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', 1 - 0, Zhong Yihao ⚽,
41', Zhong Yihao 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Zhang Xizhe ↓, Zhang Yuning ↑,
46', Guga ↓, Serginho ↑,
49', Wu Shaocong 🟨,
60', Cao Yongjing ↓, Yang Liyu ↑,
62', Bai Yang 🟨,
75', Wu Shaocong ↓, He Yupeng ↑,
75', Li Lei ↓, Zhang Yuan ↑,
77', Wang Gang 🟨,
84', 2 - 0, Felippe Cardoso (Pen),
89', Acheampong F. ↓, Gerbig O. ↑,
89', Zhong Yihao ↓, Huang Zichang ↑,
90+5', Bruno Nazario ↓, Yang Yilin ↑,
90+5', Huang Ruifeng ↓, Liu Yixin ↑,
90+7', Felippe Cardoso ↓, Liu Xinyu ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Henan Jianye won 1.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Henan Jianye: Lu Yongtao (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Beijing Guoan: Fan Shuangjie (Yellow Cards) Han Jiaqi (Knee Injury) Spajic U. (Knee Injury) Zhang Yuan (Inactive)

There are questionable in Henan Jianye: Yin Hongbo (Inactive)

There are questionable in Beijing Guoan: Dawhan (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Henan Jianye won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 17:25. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Henan Jianye won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:6. (average 1.2:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Henan Songshan Longmen
Chinese Super League
29.08.25	Qingdao Hainiu - Henan Songshan Longmen	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	Henan Songshan Longmen - Dalian Young Boy	4:0 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
19.08.25	Chengdu Rongcheng - Henan Songshan Longmen	0:1 penalties ✺
Chinese Super League
15.08.25	Shanghai Port - Henan Songshan Longmen	4:1 ✺
08.08.25	Henan Songshan Longmen - Shenzhen Peng City	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 TWWLW
- Beijing Guoan
Chinese Super League
31.08.25	Shandong Taishan - Beijing Guoan	6:0 ✺
25.08.25	Beijing Guoan - Wuhan Three Towns	4:0 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
20.08.25	Beijing Guoan - Yunnan Yukun	7:0 ✺
Chinese Super League
16.08.25	Qingdao West Coast - Beijing Guoan	1:3 ✺
10.08.25	Zhejiang Professional - Beijing Guoan	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Super League
25.04.25	Beijing Guoan - Henan Songshan Longmen	1:0
02.11.24	Beijing Guoan - Henan Songshan Longmen	1:1
15.06.24	Henan Songshan Longmen - Beijing Guoan	2:1
04.08.23	Beijing Guoan - Henan Songshan Longmen	3:1
05.05.23	Henan Songshan Longmen - Beijing Guoan	0:1
04.11.22	Beijing Guoan - Henan Songshan Longmen	2:1
07.08.22	Henan Songshan Longmen - Beijing Guoan	3:0

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