Match Info

AFC Champions League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 15 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: Workers' Stadium (Beijing)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	MAXtv To Go, SportKlub 1
Georgia	Silk Sport 3
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
India	FanCode, FanCode
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola 2, Astro Go, Sooka
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
Ukraine	Sport 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Beijing Guoan		Pohang Steelers

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.49	4.50	5.75
	1.54	4.20	5.40	Watch
	1.51	4.41	6.33
	1.65	4.07	4.68	Watch
	1.47	4.30	6.25
	1.51	4.41	6.15	Watch
	1.49	4.20	5.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.8)	4.3 ↑ (3.86)	5.71 ↑ (3.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Beijing Guoan
61.7%

Draw
21.9%

Pohang Steelers
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.7%

24.1%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

23.7%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Beijing Guoan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Beijing Guoan's performance.

Pohang Steelers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pohang Steelers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Beijing Guoan than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Beijing Guoan that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pohang Steelers than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pohang Steelers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.4%	17.6%	0%

Beijing Guoan - Pohang Steelers Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Beijing Guoan (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Beijing Guoan will win (14 of 17 users predict this - 82.35%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.23% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Hou Sen (G) 21. Yue Tze-Nam 27. Wang Gang 5. Ramos G. 47. Deng Jiefu 28. Dudziak J. 23. Dawhan 7. Serginho 10. Zhang Xizhe (C) 20. Nkololo B. 77. Akolo C.	1. Yun Pyeong-Guk (G) 14. Lee Chang-Woo 5. Jin Si-woo 33. Jo Sung-Wook (C) 36. Kim H. 3. Kim Ye-Sung 37. Jung Han-Min 31. Nishiya K. 8. Kim Seung-Ho 9. An J. 10. Tranziska J.
Substitutes
24. Abdugheni Abduhamit 29. Abreu F. 41. Cheng Xi 6. Chi Zhongguo 30. Fan Shuangjie 4. Li Lei 31. Liu S. (G) 25. Spajic U. 18. Wang Yu 43. Xiaoyu X. 17. Yang Liyu 50. Zhang H.	18. Cho Sang-Hyeok 11. da Rocha Junior J. 22. Gwang-won K. 29. Hong Sung-min (G) 70. Hwang Seo-Woong 4. Jeon Min-kwang 25. Jorge Teixeira 16. Kim Dong-Jin 20. Park Chan-Yong 17. Shin Kwang-Hoon 77. Wanderson 7. Won Ki-Jong
Coaches
Montgomery N.	Park Tae-Ha

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Akolo C. ⚽,
6', 1 - 1, Tranziska J. (Penalty Awarded),
12', 2 - 1, Zhang Xizhe ⚽,
34', Akolo C. ↓, Yang Liyu ↑,
40', Kim H. 🟨,
43', Wang Gang 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', 3 - 1, Dudziak J. ⚽, Zhang Xizhe (A),
46', An J. ↓, da Rocha Junior J. ↑,
46', Kim Ye-Sung ↓, Wanderson ↑,
46', Kim H. ↓, Jorge Teixeira ↑,
52', Jo Sung-Wook 🟨,
58', Jung Han-Min ↓, Kim Dong-Jin ↑,
67', da Rocha Junior J. 🟨,
68', Wang Gang ↓, Li Lei ↑,
68', Zhang Xizhe ↓, Abdugheni Abduhamit ↑,
73', Lee Chang-Woo ↓, Shin Kwang-Hoon ↑,
82', Nkololo B. ↓, Abreu F. ↑,
82', Dudziak J. ↓, Wang Yu ↑,
88', Wang Yu 🟨,

Preview

Beijing Guoan is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Pohang's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Pohang may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Pohang has had a series of away games.

Beijing Guoan might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Beijing Guoan won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Including home match between the teams, Beijing Guoan won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Beijing Guoan - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 51.72%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Beijing Guoan
Chinese Super League
05.09.26	Shanghai Port - Beijing Guoan	0:0 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
01.09.26	Beijing Guoan - Lanzhou Longyuan	3:1 ✺
Chinese Super League
28.08.26	Dalian Young Boy - Beijing Guoan	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Beijing Guoan - Yunnan Yukun	3:3 ✺
18.08.26	Shanghai Shenhua - Beijing Guoan	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TWTTW
- Pohang Steelers
South Korean K-League 1
12.09.26	Daejeon Citizen - Pohang Steelers	2:2 ✺
09.09.26	Pohang Steelers - Gimcheon Sangmu	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors - Pohang Steelers	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	Gangwon - Pohang Steelers	0:0 ✺
25.08.26	Jeju - Pohang Steelers	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 TTLTW

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
23.04.13	Beijing Guoan - Pohang Steelers	2:0
27.02.13	Pohang Steelers - Beijing Guoan	0:0

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