Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 26

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday


	Heraclea		Virtus Francavilla

	1	X	2
	2.48	2.98	2.68
	2.54	3.05	2.69	Watch
	2.5	2.99	2.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (2.5)	3.01 ↑ (3)	2.67 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heraclea
36.1%

Draw
30.1%

Virtus Francavilla
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.2%

30.2%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

29.5%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heraclea has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Virtus Francavilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Heraclea than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Virtus Francavilla than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Heraclea - Virtus Francavilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
40', 0 - 1, Battista I. ⚽,
45+4', 1 - 1, Schenetti A. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
82', 1 - 2, ⚽,
90+13', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 9).

Heraclea is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Virtus Francavilla has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Virtus Francavilla may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Heraclea won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Virtus Francavilla	6	5	0	1	12:8	4	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Heraclea Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group H
22.02.26	Nardo - Heraclea	0:0 ✺
08.02.26	Heraclea - Nola	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Afragolese - Heraclea	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Heraclea - Gravina	2:2 ✺
18.01.26	Città di Fasano - Heraclea	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TTLTL
- Virtus Francavilla Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group H
22.02.26	Virtus Francavilla - Gravina	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Città di Fasano - Virtus Francavilla	0:3 ✺
08.02.26	Virtus Francavilla - Paganese	0:2 ✺
01.02.26	Real Normanna - Virtus Francavilla	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Virtus Francavilla - Ferrandina	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group H
26.10.25	Virtus Francavilla - Heraclea	0:1

Heraclea - Virtus Francavilla: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide