Match Info
Catarinense 2 - Round 17Date: 22 July 2026, Wednesday
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Hercílio Luz |
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Caravaggio |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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1.55 |
3.30 |
6.00 |
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1.49 |
3.70 |
5.20 |
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1.53 |
3.28 |
6.49 |
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1.53 |
3.55 |
6.36 |
 Watch |
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1.52 |
3.75 |
5.60 |
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1.65 |
3.60 |
5.14 |
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1.76 |
3.2 |
3.55 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.58 ↓
(1.81) |
3.48 ↑
(3.25) |
5.48 ↑
(3.6) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 6.50
- The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Hercílio Luz
57.5% | Draw
26% | Caravaggio
16.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Hercílio Luz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hercílio Luz's performance.Caravaggio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Caravaggio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hercílio Luz than the current prediction. (-5.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hercílio Luz that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caravaggio than the current prediction. (+6.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Caravaggio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Hercílio Luz - Caravaggio Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
Preview
One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Catarinense and 3).Hercílio Luz has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).Caravaggio has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).Caravaggio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. In this match, Hercílio Luz is considered a favorite.We predict that Hercílio Luz will win today's game, with odds of 1.56.In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Hercílio Luz won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).
Standings
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Hercilio Luz | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 35:10 | 25 | 42 |
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| 3 | Caravaggio | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 47:20 | 27 | 35 |
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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