Match Info

BRAZIL: Catarinense - Round 10

Date: 16 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Anibal Torres Costa (Tubarao)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Brasileirao Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Hercílio Luz		Chapecoense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.13	2.92	2.33
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↓ (3.32)	2.92 ↑ (2.89)	2.33 ↑ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hercílio Luz
29.3%

Draw
31.4%

Chapecoense
39.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.3%

31.3%

41.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

30.7%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hercílio Luz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hercílio Luz than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Hercílio Luz - Chapecoense Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Chapecoense will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Renan Rocha (G) 9. Alex Henrique 8. Alison 4. Alisson Santana 11. Gabriel Silva 3. Geninho (C) 10. Kadu Barone 2. Lucas Lopes 6. Mateus Mendes 5. Matheus Neris 7. Yuri Sousa	1. Joao Paulo (G) 33. Bruno Leonardo (C) 16. Bruno Matias 37. Clar W. 97. Dentinho 3. Eduardo Doma 10. Giovanni Augusto 5. Jorge Jimenez 22. Mailton 7. Marcinho 9. Mario Sergio
Substitutes
24. Bruno Gabriel 23. Caique Brito 14. Davi Souza 19. Dudu Silva 21. Emanuel Jesus 15. Filipe Fraga 12. Igor Pavan (G) 16. Leo Herrero 13. Luizao 18. Luiz Felipe 17. Richard 20. Vitinho	27. Eduardo Person 2. Gabriel Inocencio 29. Gabriel Werner (G) 72. Italo 32. Jhonnathan 6. Mancha 48. Pedro Martins 99. Rafael Carvalheira 45. Rodrigo 70. Rubens Ricoldi 25. Victor Caetano

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
1', 1 - 0, Gabriel Silva ⚽,
28', 1 - 1, Dentinho ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Matheus Neris ↓, Emanuel Jesus ↑,
46', Clar W. ↓, Mancha ↑,
46', Jorge Jimenez ↓, Pedro Martins ↑,
56', Giovanni Augusto 🟨,
59', Marcinho ↓, Italo ↑,
59', Yuri Sousa ↓, Luizao ↑,
64', 1 - 2, Mario Sergio ⚽,
68', Giovanni Augusto ↓, Rafael Carvalheira ↑,
68', Kadu Barone ↓, Richard ↑,
68', Gabriel Silva ↓, Vitinho ↑,
71', Mario Sergio 🟨,
73', Mateus Mendes ↓, Leo Herrero ↑,
77', Bruno Leonardo 🟨,
79', 2 - 2, Lucas Lopes ⚽,
82', Mario Sergio ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
84', Dentinho 🟨,
90+1', Pedro Martins 🟨,
90+2', Mailton 🟨,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Catarinense (Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hercílio Luz won 2.

Hercílio Luz is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Chapecoense is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Chapecoense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Chapecoense will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Hercílio Luz won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 9:11 (average 0.8:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Hercílio Luz won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:3 (average 1.4:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hercílio Luz FC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
13.02.25	Hercílio Luz - Joinville	2:1 ✺
09.02.25	Concórdia - Hercílio Luz	1:0 ✺
05.02.25	Hercílio Luz - Avaí	0:3 ✺
02.02.25	Caravaggio - Hercílio Luz	1:0 ✺
29.01.25	Barra Santa Catarina - Hercílio Luz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLLLT
- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
13.02.25	Figueirense - Chapecoense	2:4 ✺
09.02.25	Chapecoense - Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
05.02.25	Barra Santa Catarina - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Chapecoense - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
29.01.25	Chapecoense - Avaí	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
16.09.24	Chapecoense - Hercílio Luz	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
20.01.24	Chapecoense - Hercílio Luz	1:0
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
08.10.23	Chapecoense - Hercílio Luz	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
18.01.23	Hercílio Luz - Chapecoense	1:0
26.02.22	Hercílio Luz - Chapecoense	3:0
28.04.21	Chapecoense - Hercílio Luz	1:0
25.04.21	Hercílio Luz - Chapecoense	0:0

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